EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• Precious metals have rallied to fresh record highs on Tuesday amid escalating geopolitical tensions, as the US has continued to ramp up pressure on Venezuela with a further military build-up and oil tanker seizures in the Caribbean.
• Spot gold has risen by 1.1% to $4,492/oz, while silver is up by 3.4% at $71.4/oz.
• The move leaves gold up by more than 10% over the past month, while silver has rallied by over 40% through the same period.
• Unsurprisingly, the trend structure in gold remains bullish, with the latest break higher confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Next resistance is seen at the $4,500 handle, ahead of $4,536.0, a Fibonacci projection.
• For silver, the latest fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the current impulsive nature of the rally. Having cleared the $70.0 handle, next resistance is seen at $73.061, a Fibonacci projection, followed by $75.0 round number resistance.
• Meanwhile, the tensions between the US and Venezuela have also boosted oil markets at a time when the focus is on excess supply.
• WTI Feb 26 is up by 0.7% at $58.4/bbl.
• Despite the move, the trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective.
• A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached, opening $53.77, a Fibonacci projection.
• On the upside, first resistance is at $58.70, the 50- day EMA, followed by key short-term resistance at $61.25, the Oct 24 high.

• Stocks are drifting near late Tuesday highs, shrugging off this morning's stronger economic data (Q3 GDP +4.3%) that tempered rate cut expectations through mid-2026 (June '26 now the first FOMC date to price in a 25bp cut).
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 101.37 points (0.21%) at 48462.41, S&P E-Mini Futures up 30 points (0.43%) at 6959.5, Nasdaq up 110.2 points (0.5%) at 23536.97.
• Information Technology and Communication Services sector shares continued to lead advances in the second half, chip makers buoyed after the Trump administration announced a tariff delay on China until 2027.
• "A filing from the trade office said the government would impose an initial tariff of zero percent on Chinese semiconductors exports before increasing it in June 2027 by an undetermined amount," the NY Times reported.
  • NVIDIA +2.66%, Broadcom +2.19%, Jabil +1.86%, Motorola Solutions +1.49% and Dell Technologies +1.47%.
  • Meanwhile, Live Nation Ent +1.71%, Alphabet +1.58%, Warner Bros Discovery +1.25%, T-Mobile US +0.81% and AT&T +0.78%.
• Conversely, Health Care, Consumer Staples and Industrials sector shares continued to underperform in late trade:
  • Moderna -6.76%, IDEXX Laboratories -2.81%, Insulet -1.88%, Align Technology -1.77% and Cooper Cos -1.37%.
  • Brown-Forman -4.95%, Campbell's Company -2.64%, Lamb Weston Holdings -2.52%, Dollar General -2.16% and Dollar Tree -2.06%.
  • United Airlines -2.47%, Delta Air Lines -2.23%, Axon Enterprise -1.86%, Southwest Airlines -1.85% and Verisk Analytics -1.15%.

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.27 @ 15:43 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 155.84/154.40 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.40, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.