EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6560 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:11 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.6473 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 0.6463 Low Aug 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday resulted in a break of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6560, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.     

• Treasury look to settle mixed, bonds weaker on very light volumes (TYZ5 670k) due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Dec'25 10Y contract currently trades at 113-05.5 (+1) - rebounding late with no obvious headline of Block-driven support.
• Normal Globex trade hours, stocks open - recovering approximately half of Friday's rout: the DJIA trades up 575.86 points (1.27%) at 46,057.31, S&P E-Minis up 98 points (1.49%) at 6,693, Nasdaq up 467.7 points (2.1%) at 22,674.98.
• No data, but Philly Fed Pres Anna Paulson (non-2025 FOMC voter, votes in 2026) said in a speech Monday that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end. That's in line with MNI's assumption of her view.
• More Fed speakers tomorrow with focus on Chairman Powell's economic outlook keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting at 1220ET.

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.81 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 176.13 @ 15:54 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.73 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish despite the slippage of last week’s high - a corrective pullback. Key short-term support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low. First support to watch lies at 174.73, the 20-day EMA. Last week’s fresh cycle highs strengthen bullish conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.