EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 179.73 1.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 179.45 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 179.19 @ 17:19 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 177.05/175.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 173.98 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
- SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, to confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 179.73, a Fibonacci projection, and the 180.00 psychological handle. First support lies at 177.05, the 20-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6560 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:11 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 0.6473 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 0.6463 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday resulted in a break of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6560, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS: Tsys Rebound Late, 2s-10s Leading on Subdued Holiday Trade
- Treasury look to settle mixed, bonds weaker on very light volumes (TYZ5 670k) due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Dec'25 10Y contract currently trades at 113-05.5 (+1) - rebounding late with no obvious headline of Block-driven support.
- Normal Globex trade hours, stocks open - recovering approximately half of Friday's rout: the DJIA trades up 575.86 points (1.27%) at 46,057.31, S&P E-Minis up 98 points (1.49%) at 6,693, Nasdaq up 467.7 points (2.1%) at 22,674.98.
- No data, but Philly Fed Pres Anna Paulson (non-2025 FOMC voter, votes in 2026) said in a speech Monday that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end. That's in line with MNI's assumption of her view.
- More Fed speakers tomorrow with focus on Chairman Powell's economic outlook keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting at 1220ET.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 179.81 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.13 @ 15:54 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 174.73 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish despite the slippage of last week’s high - a corrective pullback. Key short-term support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low. First support to watch lies at 174.73, the 20-day EMA. Last week’s fresh cycle highs strengthen bullish conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.
