USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3964 @ 08:08 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.
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EGBS: Commerzbank Like Buying Bunds If Yields Top 2.80%
Commerzbank suggest that “several factors argue for the bearish long-end dynamics to lose momentum. 30-Year OAT yields stabilised around 4.50% and 10-Year Bunds found support around 2.80%. Duration demand was very strong at yesterday's 30-Year BTP syndication, an increasing number of investors tell us that they consider real yields attractive at these levels, and last but not least, risk-sentiment is under pressure. We would therefore buy Bunds dips above 2.80% in 10-Year yields”.
EGB FLOWS: EUREX ROLL PACE
EUREX ROLL pace (as of Yesterday):
- Buxl: 40%.
- Bund: 41%.
- Bobl: 58%.
- Schatz: 57%.
- BTP: 38%.
- BTS: 39%.
- OAT: 47%.
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:05 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.
