USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

Commerzbank suggest that “several factors argue for the bearish long-end dynamics to lose momentum. 30-Year OAT yields stabilised around 4.50% and 10-Year Bunds found support around 2.80%. Duration demand was very strong at yesterday's 30-Year BTP syndication, an increasing number of investors tell us that they consider real yields attractive at these levels, and last but not least, risk-sentiment is under pressure. We would therefore buy Bunds dips above 2.80% in 10-Year yields”.

EUREX ROLL pace (as of Yesterday):

• Buxl: 40%.
• Bund: 41%.
• Bobl: 58%.
• Schatz: 57%.
• BTP: 38%.
• BTS: 39%.
• OAT: 47%.

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:05 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.