POWER: French Spot Settles Sideways, Germany Rises
The French spot power index was broadly unchanged for Tuesday’s delivery with higher demand weighed against higher renewables and an increase in nuclear availability, while the German spot index edged higher on the day.
- The German spot power index settled at €90.96/MWh, compared with €87.40/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 12.2GW during base load on Tuesday, from 11.36GW on Monday. Solar PV output in Germany is forecast to rise to 23.85GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 15.14GW a day earlier.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to increase to 54.74GW on Tuesday, from 53.47GW on Monday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 28GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 29.04GWh/h on Monday.
- The French spot power index settled at €13.59/MWh, compared with €13.49/MWh in the previous session.
- Hourly day-ahead prices in France were negative or at zero between hour 11 and 17.
- French nuclear reactor availability rose to 66% of capacity as of Monday morning, from 65% on Friday.
- French nuclear reactor availability is forecast to increase to 42.07GWh on Tuesday, from 39.09GWh on Monday.
- Wind output in France is forecast to remain broadly stable on the day on Tuesday at 9.46GW during base load. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 6.34GW during peak load on Tuesday, from 5.56GW on Monday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 45.99GW on Tuesday, from 43.97GW on Monday.
- Residual load in France forecast at 32.24GWh/h on Tuesday, up from 30.28GWh/h on Monday.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Strong S/T Bounce
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.915 - High Apr 4
- PRICE: 95.860 @ 16:42 GMT Apr 04
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4308 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4242 High Apr 4
- PRICE: 1.4196 @ 17:10 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD rallied Friday, but remains lower on the week after Thursday’s downleg. The move down has confirmed a clear reversal of the bull cycle between Sep 25 ‘24 and Feb 3. Price is through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4308, the 50-day EMA.
CANADA DATA: Unexpected Jobs Contraction Boosts Implied April BOC Cut Chances
Canadian employment unexpectedly contracted in March, falling by the most since January 2022 at -32.6k (+10.0k expected, +1.1k prior) in a sign that the trade war with the US is spilling over increasingly into the "hard" data. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1pp to 6.7%, in line with expectations and below the November 6.9% high, though unrounded it rose from 6.55% to 6.71% - the largest increase since November.
- The drop in employment was largely due to a 62.0k drop in full-time positions (after -19.7k, the 2nd straight drop), with part-time up for the 4th consecutive month at 29.5k (after 20.8k prior) - that mix is clearly indicative of hiring uncertainty among firms.
- The monthly full-time drop was the 2nd largest since the pandemic lows in the labour market (April 2020). Goods producing jobs fell by 12k (2nd consecutive decline), while services shed 21k (wholesale/retail trade and Information, culture and recreation led losses).
- The participation rate dipped 0.1pp to 65.2%.
- Wages were soft, dropping 0.2% M/M for the first drop since November, with the Y/Y rate slipping to 3.6% from 3.8% prior. The rise in permanent employees' wages of 3.5% Y/Y was well below the 4.1% expected (4.0% prior).
- Market-implied probability of an April BOC rate cut rose to as high as 68% after the data before settling the day at around 55%. That compares to 40% prior to Wednesday's US tariffs announcement.
