POWER: French Spot Power Index Falls Near One-Month Low
Dec-05 12:01
The German and French spot power indices declined for Saturday’s delivery with the French settlement falling to the lowest level since 11 November on lower demand and strong wind generation.
- The German spot power index settled at €79.61/MWh, down from €133.29/MWh in the previous session.
- The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot cleared at €85.93/MWh, down from €163.05/MWh the day before.
- German wind output is forecast at 25.8GW during base load on Saturday, from 4.71GW on Friday.
- German rescom gas demand is forecast at 152.4mcm/d on Saturday, from 167.8mcm/d on Friday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 54.16GW on Saturday, from 61.33GW on Friday and revised up from 53.62GW previously.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 24.02GWh/h on Saturday and at 25.31GWh/h on Sunday, from 56.34GWh/h on Friday.
- The French spot power index cleared at €25.16/MWh, compared with €80.01/MWh the day before.
- The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €27.66/MWh, compared with €87.91/MWh in the previous session.
- French nuclear availability was stable at 84% on Friday morning.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 52.02GWh/h on Saturday and 53.06GWh/h on Sunday, from 51.96GWh/h on Friday.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rebound to 10C on Saturday, from 4.1C on Friday and above the seasonal average of 5.3C.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 14.56GW during base load on Saturday and at 13.69GW on Sunday, from 7.39GW on Friday.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 56.51GW on Saturday and at 51.15GW on Sunday, from 64.38GW on Friday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 40.57GWh/h on Saturday and at 36.84GWh/h on Sunday, from 55.71GWh/h on Friday.
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MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.9% SA THRU OCT 31 WK
Nov-05 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.9% SA THRU OCT 31 WK
EGBS: OATs The Risk Proxy Of Choice, Limiting Recovery In SPGB/OAT/PGB Fly
Nov-05 11:58
The SPGB/OAT/PGB butterfly is off all-time lows, but the bounce has been limited and has already started to fade as weakness in equity markets weighs on OATs in RV terms.
- OATs have become more of a risk proxy given France’s ongoing fiscal deterioration and political risk premium.
- This contrasts with the positive fiscal dynamics and sovereign rating trajectories for Spain and Portugal, and the clear differentiation continues to hamper French paper on this structure.
- Ongoing French political risks and prolonged Budget uncertainty only deepen downside risks for OATs here, particularly with no clear outcome in sight at this stage.
- Note that the latest local media reports point to French PM Lecornu being set to offer concessions to the Socialist Party in order to advance the social security budget (covered by our political risk team recently), although it is uncertain whether the offer will actually be tabled/accepted.
Fig. 1: 10-Year Spain/France Portugal Butterfly
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed
Nov-05 11:51
- On the commodity front, a fresh cycle low last week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3867.3. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI futures are unchanged and the contract remains in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.03. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
