POWER: French Spot Power Index Drops Sharply
Oct-22 11:02
The German and French spot power indices declined, with sharp losses in the French market, weighed on by high nuclear availability and strong wind generation.
- The German spot power index declined to €82.27/MWh, compared with €125.07/MWh in the previous session.
- The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €83.18/MWh, compared with €143.58/MWh day before.
- German wind output is forecast at 31.21GW during base load on Thursday, form 13.94GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 5.68GW during peak load on Thursday, from 5.35GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 20.95GWh/h on Thursday, down from 37.17GWh/h on Wednesday and slightly revised down from 20.33GWh/h 24h earlier.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 67.9mcm/d on Thursday, from 65.8mcm/d on Wednesday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 57.04GW on Thursday, from 56.81GW on Wednesday.
- The French spot power index cleared at €10.45/MWh, compared with €67.07/MWh the day before.
- The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €11.47/MWh, compared with €92.33/MWh the previous session.
- French nuclear availability was stable at 77% of capacity as of Wednesday morning.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 44.52GWh/h on Thursday, from 46.49GWh/h on Wednesday.
- EdF issued a strike notice for 24 hours starting on Wednesday at 21:00 CET.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 18.37GW during base load on Thursday, from 5.41GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 3.89GW during peak load on Thursday, from 3.62GW on Wednesday.
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US TSYS: Inside Friday Range, Several Fed Speakers on Light Data Docket
Sep-22 10:52
- Treasuries drifting near the top end of a narrow overnight range - near the middle of Friday's range
- TYZ5 trades at 112-25.5 (+1.5) on thin cumulative volumes of 217k. 10Y yield +.0019 at 4.1293%.
- The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Resistance well above at 113-29, Sep 11 high and the bull trigger.
- Data: Limited to Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 0830ET, Bbg survey estimate -0.16 est from -0.19 prior.
- Fedspeak: NY Fed Williams on monetary policy (0945ET), StL Fed Musalem on economy & policy from Brookings Inst (1000ET), Cleveland Fed Hammack on banks & economy (1200ET), Richmond Fed Barkin (1200ET), Fed Gov Miran moderated Q&A from Economic Club/NY (1200).
- Politics: Congress has departed for a week-long recess without a plan to fund the federal government (Senate blocked a CR bill Friday after the House passed the measure. Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) is expected to delay a second CR vote until September 29, exerting as much pressure on Democrats as possible.
- At 1300ET, Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
- At 1600ET, President Trump expected to make an announcement on Significant Medical and Scientific Findings for America's Children.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
Sep-22 10:45
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and S/T weakness is considered corrective. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1667. the 50-day EMA.
- A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3441, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
- USDJPY recovered sharply from last Wednesday’s low and the pair is holding onto its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Last Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback
Sep-22 10:40
- RES 4: 114-15 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-26+ @ 11:29 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 112-22/112-15+ Low Sep 19 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-08+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
