FRANCE DATA: French Consumer Sentiment Weak; Political Uncertainty In Focus
French June consumer confidence was steady at 88.4 (vs 88.3 prior), a touch below the 89.0 rounded consensus. There are likely downside risks to French sentiment ahead though, with political uncertainty set to ratchet higher again in the coming months. After the Bayrou government failed to reach an agreement on pension reforms with social partners yesterday, the Socialist party (supported by others on the left) have proposed a censure motion. While the far-right RN will not support censure at this stage, they have highlighted the 2026 budget as a key event to determine if they will continue to tacitly support (or at least, not bring down) Bayrou.
- In June, consumer’s perception of the general economic outlook worsened on both the backward- and forward-looking measures. Meanwhile, unemployment expectations remained elevated at 59.1 (vs 60.8 in May, 51.9 in April).
- Savings intentions also rose notably to 39.9 (vs 35.8 prior).
- The weak consumer outlook comes with Bayrou expected to propose further fiscal tightening measures in the 2026 budget proposal, provisionally due for next month.
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SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
- PRICE: $33.414 @ 08:19 BST May 26
- SUP 1: $31.668/651 - Low May 1 / 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3994/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.38.97 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3702 @ 08:17 BST May 26
- SUP 1: 1.3686 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme. The pair has traded through support at 1.3751, the May 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 1.3600 handle while further out, the move down opens 1.3420, the Sep 25 ‘24 low. Initial resistance is 1.3897, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Hawkish ECB Repricing On Tariff Deadline Extension; Focus On Easing Pace
Light hawkish repricing in ECB implied rates after US President Trump and EC President von der Leyen agreed to delay the imposition of 50% US tariffs on the EU to July 9 (from June 1 previously). ECB-dated OIS price 56bps of easing through December, down from 57bps at Friday’s close and a knee-jerk dovish extreme of 66bps following Trump's initial announcement.
- OIS are nonetheless 4bps more dovish than last Monday’s close. Since then: (1) downside growth risks have been underscored by the weak May flash PMIs (2) Q1 negotiated wages were softer than some of the expectations we had seen and (3) the worst-case scenario if no US/EU trade deal is struck is now considerably more deterimental to the near-term growth/inflation outlook than before.
- A 25bp cut remains fully priced through June, with focus now on whether the ECB will return to a quarterly easing pace afterwards or continue with sequential cuts in July.
- OIS butterfly spreads comfortably assign a higher rate cut premium to projection meetings (June, September, December) compared to non-projection counterparts.
- Euribor futures are off session lows, but remain -1.5 to -4.0 ticks through the blues.
- ECB’s Lagarde & Nagel are due to speak today, with those comments set to focus on a fragmented world and trade disputes, as opposed to outright monetary policy matters.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.932 | -23.8 |
| Jul-25 | 1.848 | -32.2 |
| Sep-25 | 1.720 | -45.0 |
| Oct-25 | 1.675 | -49.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.606 | -56.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.588 | -58.2 |
| Mar-26 | 1.578 | -59.3 |
| Apr-26 | 1.585 | -58.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
