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OI data points to limited pack-level positioning swings in Euribor futures on Tuesday, with a mix of net long setting and net short cover generally observed.

• Only three contracts (M5, Z5 and U7) saw a daily OI change of more than 5,000.
• Z5 has now seen four consecutive sessions of indicative net long setting.
• Yesterday’s dovish flow in Z5 included: 98.25/98.625cs vs 97.75p, bought the cs for -0.75 in 8k (ref 98.05) and 98.50/98.75cs, bought for 3.5 in 40k total.

• In the FI space, recent gains in Bund futures still appear corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this support would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
• A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. The contract traded higher Tuesday and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear threat.

• MBA composite mortgage applications edged another -1.2% lower last week (SA) after a heavier -6.6% the week prior continued to backtrack a sharp increase seen early in 2025.
• It’s been driven by a more abrupt pullback in refi activity (-3.6% after -7.3%).
• New purchase applications meanwhile were flat at 0.2% after -5.9% the week prior and a cumulative 12% drop since mid-Jan.
• 30Y conforming mortgage rates may have continued to inch lower, most recently -5bp to 6.88% for the lowest since mid-Dec (and -14bp since late Jan), but remain prohibitive with new purchase applications at 45% of pre-pandemic levels and refis at 33%.