POWER: France Spot Power to Edge Lower
The French spot power index is expected to edge lower with a slight dip in residual load amid higher wind output and lower demand. France March power is trading higher with gains in EU gas prices, despite an upward revision in temperature forecasts.
- France Base Power MAR 25 up 0.8% at 91.55 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.4% at 81.48 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.2% at 54.1 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France rose to 81% of capacity as of Thursday morning, up from 78% on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 reactor is scheduled to increase test run capacity to 240MW, from 100MW currently, from 8 February 00:00CET.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised higher on the day to be closer in line with the average.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 4C on Friday, up from 3.6C on Thursday and below the seasonal average of 4.6C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 68.72GW on Friday, down from 69.84GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 8.03GW during base load on Friday, up from 6.7GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decline to 58.3GWh/h on Friday, down from 59.92GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised up to end at -2.4TWh on 20 February, compared with -2.6TWh a day earlier.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium EUR 10y Benchmark Guidance
- EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (June 22, 2035) MS+68 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act, short first
- Issuer: Kingdom of Belgium Government Bond (BGB)
- Format: Reg S CAT1, dematerialized, senior unsecured, 144a eligible
- Settlement: Jan. 14, 2025
- Denoms: 0.01 x 0.01
- ISIN: BE0000363722
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), CA-CIB, HSBC, JPM, MS
(As per Bloomberg).
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4305 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.4322/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4155 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and a move down appears corrective - for now. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4322, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4155, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6275 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but for now, remains intact.
