POWER: France November Power Falls
Oct-22 07:06
France November power is declining with forecasts for milder weather from next week, limiting demand for electric heating.
- France Base Power NOV 25 down 4% at 67.54 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power Week 2 down 18% at 48 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 79.39 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 0.8% at 31.935 EUR/MWh
- French nuclear availability was stable at 77% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 44.52GWh/h on Thursday, from 46.49GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- EdF issued a strike notice for 24 hours starting on Wednesday at 21:00 CET.
- 915MW Cruas 3 will be offline until Wednesday 19:00 CET due to strikes.
- 1.62GW Flamanville 3 will continue test runs with 820MW until 23 October 04:00 CET, after which output will ramp down and up again.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to be below normal later this week before rising above the average from next week.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast at 12.8C on Thursday, from 13.9C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 11.7C.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 18.37GW during base load on Thursday, from 5.41GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 3.89GW during peak load on Thursday, from 3.62GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 26.49GWh/h on Thursday, from 39.95GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 48.5GW on Thursday, from 46.79GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- France’s hydro balance forecast has been broadly stable at 111GWh as of 5 November, Bloomberg data showed.
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- RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
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- SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
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The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the current pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6547, the 50-day EMA.
