RENEWABLES: France Morning Renewable Forecast
See the latest French renewables forecast for base-load hours from this morning for the next seven days. In contrast to Germany, French wind will be at 12% load factor on 13 February – which could narrow the FR-DE spread.
French: Wind for 8-15 February
- 8 February: 6.25GW
- 9 February: 2.19GW
- 10 February: 4.13GW
- 11 February: 4.05GW
- 12 February: 3.51GW
- 13 February: 2.84GW
- 14 February: 8.77GW
- 15 February: 2.53GW
French: Solar for 8-15 February
- 8 February: 1.01GW
- 9 February: 1.54GW
- 10 February: 0.595GW
- 11 February: 0.903GW
- 12 February: 0.939GW
- 13 February: 1.60GW
- 14 February: 1.54GW
15 February: 2.67GW
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BONDS: Fresh Multi-Month Highs For Crude Not Having Much Impact
Little feedthrough for bonds as both Brent and WTI crude oil futures hit the highest level seen since mid-October.
- Out commodities team have highlighted yesterday’ s API inventory data as a key driver of the move.
- Elsewhere, signs that sanctions are tightening supplies, with a reduction in consumption of Iranian and Russian crude, as well as reports of Ukraine hitting a Russian oil depot that supplies a military airfield, provide further support for crude.
AUSTRIA: Foreign Min Schallenberg To Take Over As Interim Chancellor
Der Standard reports that Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg will, for the second time in his career, be sworn in as interim chancellor. The transition will come on Friday 10 January and comes after incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced that following the collapse of coalition talks he would step down as head of the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and chancellor.
- The Schallenberg administration will be a caretaker gov't in the same nature as the Nehammer administration that has been in place since the September 2024 federal election. It will engage in the day-to-day running of gov't, but will not be able to propose new legislation or make major policy decisions.
- The ÖVP also confirms that acting federal chair Christian Stocker will give a statement to the press at 1400CET (0800ET, 1300GMT). This comes a day after Herbert Kickl, leader of the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) confirmed that he had accepted the mandate from President Alexander van der Bellen to form a gov't and would be inviting Stocker to begin exploratory talks.
- Stocker has, at least tacitly, signalled that the ÖVP under his leadership would be willing to at least start negotiations. There remain risks for the ÖVP in taking on the junior coalition role, with little opportunity in such a position to boost their credentials ahead of the next federal election.
Chart 1. Austrian National Council, Seats
Source: parlament.gv.at, MNI. N.b. Numbers in brackets indicate change of seats at 2024 election.
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