POWER: France Gives Nod to Boost 1.6GW FL3 Nuke Output Beyound 80%

• TYF6 114c, bought for '27 in 28k.

This was bought in 100k Yesterday

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6909.50/6953.75 High Nov 3 / High Oct 30 and bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6892.50 @ 14:27 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 6808.31/6655.70 20-day EMA / Low Nov 7 & key S/T support 
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 bull cycle  

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the bear leg since the Oct 30 high appears to have been a correction. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6722.19, and a key level. Activity on Nov 7 highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. Sights are on 6953.75, Oct 30 high and bull trigger.

• After reaching a multi-month low of 2.523% on October 17, 10-year benchmark Bund yields have drifted back to 2.645%. The 2.70% figure contained upside on Monday.
• Despite today's pullback, our technical analyst notes that the short-term trend for yields is still higher for now. A push through 2.70% would expose the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 2 – Oct 17 pullback at 2.735% and the Oct 7 high at 2.744%.
• However, a move towards 2.80%, last seen in early September, may require increased conviction that the ECB's easing cycle has concluded, alongside durable signs that the ramp-up in German fiscal spending and associated issuance is underway heading into 2026.
• A linear model capturing fiscal/issuance fundamentals, ECB pricing, risk proxies and global FI pressures suggests fair value for the 10-year benchmark Bund is around 2.75%, pointing to modest upside risks from current levels.
• Current average Bloomberg consensus sees 10-year Bund yields aligning close to this fair value by year-end, albeit with a wide range of estimates between 2.50-3.00%. By the end of 2026, yields are expected to reach 3.00% (range 2.70-3.25%).
• The next important set of inputs for the ECB’s near-term rate path are the November flash PMIs (Nov 21) and flash inflation round (Nov 28 – Dec 2). The second reading of Q3 GDP on Friday is unlikely to be a major needle mover for markets.
• On the German fiscal front, monthly federal data is due to be updated next Thursday.  YTD tracking of the federal budget deficit hasn’t pointed to a substantial fiscal easing yet.
• Meanwhile, the Bundestag will vote on the 2026 budget late November (though this isn’t expected to contain much new information).
• More focus will likely be on DFA’s 2026 issuance plan. It’s scheduled to be released in December (no set date yet). The 2025 plan was released on December 17 last year.