POWER: France Front-Week Power Rises
France front-week power is rallying with forecasts suggesting a sharp drop in wind generation from the start of next week. France November power is expected to be supported by front-week gains, once liquid, however, forecasts for milder weather are expected to weigh on heating demand expectations.
- France Base Power NOV 25 closed up 2.1% at 72.27 EUR/MWh on 2 Oct
- France Base Power Week 2 up 13.3% at 68 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.2% at 77.62 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 1.3% at 31.06 EUR/MWh
- French nuclear availability edged down to 78% of capacity as of Friday morning, down from 79% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 38.74GWh/h on Saturday and at 40.93GWh/h on Sunday, down from 46.83GWh/h on Friday.
- Nuclear availability is forecast at 45.56GWh/h next week, Reuters data showed.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests mean temperatures will be mostly above normal until the end of next week, before easing lower.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast at 16.5C on Saturday and 13.3C on Sunday, from 13.5C on Friday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 14.65GW during base load on Saturday and at 10.44GW on Sunday, compared with 7.04GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast at 5.17GW during peak load on Saturday and at 7.99GW on Sunday, up from 3.78GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 22.49GWh/h on Saturday and at 23.82GWh/h on Sunday, from 37.28GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 41.07GW on Saturday and at 40.49GW on Sunday, down from 46.2GGW on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- France’s hydro balance forecast has been revised up slightly to end at 1.54TWh on 17 October, from 1.39TWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14
- RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15
- RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 90.16/90.84 High Sep 2 / High Aug 28 / 29
- PRICE: 89.76 @ Close Sep 2
- SUP 1: 89.60 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 89.46 1.382 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 89.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.
MNI: TURKEY AUG CPI +2.04% M/M
- MNI: TURKEY AUG CPI +2.04% M/M
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 89.73/89.76.
