POWER: France February Power At Highest Since Early December
The French February power base-load contract is rallying this morning to the highest since 4 December with support from forecasts for colder, less windy weather and gains in the energy complex. The French spot index is expected to increase with forecasts for lower wind and higher demand.
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 6.8% at 110.63 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 81.32 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.9% at 49.15 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France increased to 86% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 81% on Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised down on the day with temperatures to fall below normal from 31 January until the end of the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 6.2C on Thursday, from 7.3C on Wednesday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 64.45GW on Thursday, from 63.34GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 5.68GW during base load on Thursday, down from 11.01GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to increase to 56.29GWh/h on Thursday, up from 50.19GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been broadly stable on the day to end at -1.9TWh on 12 February.
- The unplanned outage at the 2GW IFA power link between France and the UK has been extended by one day until 30 January 16:00CET. Capacity has been curtailed by 500MW during the outage.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6444 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6274/6323 Low Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6236 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6323, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Has Cleared All Key Retracement Points
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 166.18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 164.66 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 163.32 Low Dec 26
- SUP 2: 162.22/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 157.87 Low Dec 09
A bullish condition in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. Price has breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. Sights are on 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 162.22, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
MNI: SWISS KOF DEC ECONOMIC BAROMETER 99.5
- MNI: SWISS KOF DEC ECONOMIC BAROMETER 99.5
