POWER: France Feb Power Rallies Above 17% This Week
Jan-31 08:20
The French February power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net gain almost 17.5% this week, supported by colder, less windy weather and lower nuclear availability.
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 4.3% at 123EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 83.17 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.5% at 52.205 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France increased to 85% of capacity on Friday morning, up from 84% a day earlier, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 reactor is scheduled to resume test runs at 120MW on 1 February 23:00CET.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised lower on the day but temperatures signal a trend higher at the end of the second week of February. Mean temperatures are forecast below the seasonal average until 9 February.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 1.7C on Saturday and to 0.6C on Sunday, down from 2.5C on Friday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to decline over the weekend to 62.85GW on Saturday and to 62.91GW on Sunday, down from 65.53GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to decrease 2.74GW on Saturday and to 1.86GW on Sunday during base load, down from 3.85GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to fall to 58.5GWh/h on Saturday and to 58.61GWh/h on Sunday, down from 59.65GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised higher on the day to end at -1.95TWh on 14 February, compared with -2.21TWh a day earlier.
- EdF has raised its nuclear production targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 to 350-37-TWh, from 335-365TWh previously, it said. This excludes Flamanville 3.
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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
