RATINGS: France Downgraded By S&P To A+ Despite Draft Budget Submission

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6707 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 0.6657 @ 21:15 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 0.6579/6537 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6579, the 20-day EMA.

• US Treasuries look to finish near late session lows, completely reversing the initial rate cut move rally - to weaker across the board after the bell with Dec'25 10Y futures just through early session low of 113-08 t0 113-02 (-15.5), 10Y yield +.0439 4.0718%.
• Treasury futures had extended highs after the FOMC annc 25bp rate cut, Fed Gov Miran the sole dissenter in favor of a 50bp cut. Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures climbing +8 to 113-25.
• Still digesting mixed messaging, Chairman Powell: "it's not a bad economy ... it's challenging to know what what to do ... there are no risk free paths. Now it's not incredibly obvious what to do."
• Meanwhile "downside risks to employment have risen," the Fed said in its post-meeting policy statement. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated."
• However, a confident sounding Chair Powell on the US economy as a whole and the mixed messages within the summary of economic projections questioned the overall dovish narrative and subsequently the US dollar aggressively reversed higher alongside US treasury yields.
• Focus turns to Thursday's weekly claims Leading Index and Net TIC Flows.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 173.64 @ 21:03 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 172.67/171.56 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. Clearance of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.56.