FRANCE DATA: Flash Q4 GDP Tenth Lower Than Expected, Following Q3 Olympic Boost
France Q4 Flash GDP was a tenth lower than expected at -0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.4% in Q3) - the lowest quarterly reading since Q1-2023. On an annual basis, it was also a tenth below expectations at 0.7% Y/Y (vs 0.8% consensus, 1.2% prior).
- The press release notes the weakness was "partly due to the backlash from the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games which supported growth in the third quarter".
- The contribution of Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) to quarterly GDP softened to 0.3ppts (vs 0.4ppts in Q3), though the contribution remains above Q1 and Q2 levels.
- Gross fixed capital formation's contribution remained negative at -0.1ppts, though is above the Q3 contribution of -0.3ppts.
- Foreign trade's net contribution fell further to -0.2ppts in Q4 (from -0.1ppts in Q3), with exports falling albeit at a softer pace by 0.2% Q/Q (vs a fall of 0.8% in Q3), while imports rebounded 0.4% Q/Q (vs -0.4% in Q3).
- Finally stock variation contributed -0.1ppts to quarterly GDP (vs a positive contribution of 0.2ppts in Q3).
- The press release notes annual growth for 2024 was 1.1% Y/Y, in-line with 2023's growth rate though below 2022's growth rate of 2.6%.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C December 30, 2024
Greece is due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E0.5bln in first round operations, in-line with last week.
- Today, Greece will sell E500mln of the new 13-week Apr 4, 2025 GTB.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 5027.00 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 4939.00 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 4881.00 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
- SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 4939.00, the Dec 19 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8316/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27
- PRICE: 0.8290 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP resistance at 0.8317, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced - but has so far failed to trigger a sharper move higher. A clear breach of the EMA would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
