FRANCE DATA: Flash PMI details point in a dovish direction

May-22 07:19

The underlying details of the French flash PMIs point in a dovish direction with the sharpest fall in selling prices since January 2021 and expectations for activity over the next 12 months negative for the first time in 6 months and the future activity index at the lowest level since April 2020.

  • "Restricting business activity levels was another marked reduction in new order intakes, with services companies reporting the more pronounced drop in sales out of the two monitored sectors. Competition for work prompted the sharpest monthly fall in selling prices since January 2021."
  • "company sentiment was its most subdued since April 2020."
  • "Expectations for activity over the next 12 months turned negative for the first time since last November, with companies pointing to the subdued sales environment, client hesitancy, geopolitical factors and the prevailing economic climate as reasons to be pessimistic. Albeit still over 13 points higher than April 2020’s record low, the ‘flash’ HCOB Future Activity Index was still nonetheless at its lowest level since that nadir."
  • "New orders received from non-domestic sources shrank during the latest survey period. Both manufacturers and service providers registered steeper falls in new export sales, although the latter posted the more pronounced drop."

 

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Early upside are favoured

Apr-22 07:19

ERZ5 98.75/99.00/99.25c fly, bought for 2.25 in 8k.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

Apr-22 07:17
  • RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
  • RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
  • RES 2: 1.4180 50-day EMA 
  • RES 1: 1.3906/4052 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
  • PRICE: 1.3812 @ 08:16 BST Apr 22
  • SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21
  • SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
  • SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
  • SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

A bearish theme in USDCAD remains intact for now. Fresh trend lows continue to highlight a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4052, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES: Estoxx futures is paring gains

Apr-22 07:14
  • The bid in Estoxx futures has lacked traction, after Cash Equities gapped lower on the Open, caught up with some of the price action seen in Futures.
  • Estoxx futures continues to trade within that 135 points range seen last Week, less volatile to some of the US Equity sessions.
  • Last Week's range of 4786.00/4921.00 (low/high) will be seen as the first support/resistance.
VGM5 Index (EURO STOXX 50     Ju 2025-04-22 08-09-34