EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: FDJ: 2Q results

Jul-30 16:20

(FDJFP; Baa1/NR) 

Not mover for credit.

  • 1H revenue €1.9b, +31% but on adj./LFL basis (including Kindred's last year revenues) it would be -2%
  • adj. EBITDA on 23.6% margin, -210bps dropping LFL EBITDA by -9.5% y/y
  • FY guide reiterated: stable revenue pro-forma acquired Kindred, adj. EBITDA margin >24% and net debt reduction of at least €150m (-0.2x from reported 1.9x to end LY).

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Large Mar'26 SOFR Straddle vs. Calls

Jun-30 16:11
  • +20,000 SFRH6 96.12 straddles vs. 97.00 call, 28.5-29.0 vs. 97.00/0.20%
  • +5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.81 put spds, 0.25

FOREX: EURUSD Extends to Fresh Cycle Highs, EZ HICP Tuesday

Jun-30 16:05
  • With trend conditions remaining firmly in bullish territory, EURUSD has edged to fresh session/cycle highs in recent minutes, continuing to track at the best traded levels since September 2021. Last week’s gains reinforced the uptrend, emphasised by a breach of the bull trigger at 1.1631, the Jun 12 high. Immediate sights are on 1.1783, a Fibonacci projection, before 1.1821, the Sep 16 2021 high.
  • We highlighted earlier that analysts have been highlighting that the latest greenback selling has notably been paired with an adjustment lower for the front-end of the US curve, which is pertinent alongside a significant reduction in geopolitical risk premia. Alongside slightly softer-than-expected US data today, potential month-end flows may have added headwinds for the greenback.
  • This dynamic may place a greater focus than usual on this week’s US employment report, notably scheduled on Thursday owing to the July 4th holiday. Using a spot reference of 1.1730, the break-even on a Thursday straddle sat at +/- 85 pips, which could coincide with an important support trendline for the USD index. Full USD note here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3InJeJV
  • Eurozone HICP data crosses tomorrow - after incorporating today's German and Italian June flash inflation data, analysts continue to coalesce around 2.0% Y/Y for the EZ-wide flash headline reading (vs 1.9% prior).

MNI: USDA: CORN STOCKS 4,644M BSL ON JUN 1

Jun-30 16:00
  • USDA: CORN STOCKS 4,644M BSL ON JUN 1
  • USDA: ALL WHEAT STOCKS 0,851M BSL ON JUN 1
  • USDA: SOYBEAN STOCKS 1,008M BSL ON JUN 1