USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off Resistance

Morning Consult notes: “Economic buzz worsens: Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with major downward revisions to the data from May and June, appears to be resonating with Americans. By a 21-point margin, voters were more likely to say they’d heard something negative than positive about the economy in the past week — the largest gap since June.”

• Morning Consult adds: “Similarly, Friday’s jobs report appears to be undermining Americans’ trust in the president's stewardship of the economy. Voters are now 6 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his worst numbers since April.”
• Semafor reports: “Growth and inflation in the country have largely weathered its unpredictable tariffs and economic policies, but essential costs on housing, health care, and education are making up an ever-bigger share of household spending, credit card debt is at an all-time high, and even some higher earners are falling behind on their loan payments.”

Figure 1: US Consumer Confidence

Source: Semafor, Conference Board

Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included: 

• RXV5 131/130/129p fly, bought for 15.5 in 2k.
• ERH6 99.0/99.50 call spread, bought for 0.75 in 10k
• SFIQ5 96.15/96.20 call spread saw paper pay 1.0 on 7K
• SFIZ5 96.55/96.75cs, bought for 2 in 2k
• SFIZ5 96.60/96.80/97.00/97.20c condor sold at 0.75 in ~1.3k with SFIZ5 96.50/96.70cs, sold at 2.25 in ~2.88k
• SFIM6 96.75/97.50/98.25c fly, bought for 10.25 in 8k
• SFIM6 97.00 calls paper paid 8.75 on 4K vs. 96.535

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8723 @ 16:09 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from last Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8601. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.