USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off Resistance
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.14 High Sep 3
- PRICE: 146.92 @ 16:11 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 146.91/146.21 Intraday low / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 145.36 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above it. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme, and open 149.81, a Fibonacci retracement. However, the pair has pulled back from this week’s high and remains inside its range. Key support to watch is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and the bear trigger.
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US: Jobs Report Appears To Resonate w/Voters - Morning Consult
Morning Consult notes: “Economic buzz worsens: Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with major downward revisions to the data from May and June, appears to be resonating with Americans. By a 21-point margin, voters were more likely to say they’d heard something negative than positive about the economy in the past week — the largest gap since June.”
- Morning Consult adds: “Similarly, Friday’s jobs report appears to be undermining Americans’ trust in the president's stewardship of the economy. Voters are now 6 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his worst numbers since April.”
- Semafor reports: “Growth and inflation in the country have largely weathered its unpredictable tariffs and economic policies, but essential costs on housing, health care, and education are making up an ever-bigger share of household spending, credit card debt is at an all-time high, and even some higher earners are falling behind on their loan payments.”
Figure 1: US Consumer Confidence
Source: Semafor, Conference Board
OPTIONS: Upside-Leaning Structures In European Rates
Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXV5 131/130/129p fly, bought for 15.5 in 2k.
- ERH6 99.0/99.50 call spread, bought for 0.75 in 10k
- SFIQ5 96.15/96.20 call spread saw paper pay 1.0 on 7K
- SFIZ5 96.55/96.75cs, bought for 2 in 2k
- SFIZ5 96.60/96.80/97.00/97.20c condor sold at 0.75 in ~1.3k with SFIZ5 96.50/96.70cs, sold at 2.25 in ~2.88k
- SFIM6 96.75/97.50/98.25c fly, bought for 10.25 in 8k
- SFIM6 97.00 calls paper paid 8.75 on 4K vs. 96.535
EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Signals A Bullish Turn
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8723 @ 16:09 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from last Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8601. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.
