USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off 50-Day EMA Resistance
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
- RES 2: 146.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 146.22 50-day EMA and key resistance
- PRICE: 145.04 @ 15:52 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 144.15/141.97 20-day EMA / Low Apr 29
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
Despite this week’s gains, the primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.22, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79, a Fibonacci projection. First key support is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.
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USDJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.16/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.74 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 144.86 @ 15:44 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 2: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
- SUP 4: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY is trading sharply lower Wednesday, resulting in a break of support at 144.56, the Apr 4 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 142.95, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.74, the 20-day EMA.
US: Trump's Approval Rating Dips As Post-Tariff Surveys Filter Through
US President Donald Trump's approval rating has continued to slide as the first surveys, based on data taken after Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, filter through to polling aggregators.
- A new YouGov/Economist survey out today saw Trump's approval drop from net -3 to net -8 since last week's survey.
- Nate Silver notes: "...in the Silver Bulletin average, it looks like we’re starting to really see a post—tariff dip in Trump’s approval ratings. As of this morning, Trump has the lowest approval (46.1 percent) and highest disapproval (50.4 percent) of his second term."
- Trump's sliding approval rating adds another pressure point to Trump's hardline agenda, adding to a major period of market turbulence and increasingly vocal concerns from the Congressional Republican conference.
- A new survey from Ipsos found that, "roughly half of Americans say short-term economic pain is worth it to make the U.S. stronger in the long term (49%). This sentiment is significantly higher among Republicans (81%) compared to Democrats (23%) and independents (49%).”
Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating (SilverBulletin)
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCKs: Additional Crosses Pre/Post Minutes
- Both appear to be buys:
- 7,000 TUM5 103-16.5, through 103-15.38 post time offer at 1400:13ET, trades 103-13.5 last (-16.5)
- 5,000 FVM5 107-25.75, post time offer at 1356:20ET, trades 107-16.25 last (-1-00.75)
