CANADA DATA: Expected November Retail Sales Jump Offsets Soft October

Dec-19 19:13

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Friday's Retail Sales release from StatCan was mixed, with a third sequential decline in 4 months in...

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US TSYS: Post-Oct FOMC Minutes React

Nov-19 19:03
  • Treasuries pared gains then rebound - still hold to narrow range after the October FOMC minutes showed "strongly differed" rate cut opinions.
  • Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +2 at 112-27 (112-29 high). Resistance above at the 113-02 level in Treasuries, an area of congestion since Nov 5, remains intact.
  • A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A breach would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06+.
  • Bbg US$ index continues to climb: +5.68 at 1225.11; SPX eminis firmer: +18 at 6857.75 - eyes on Nvidia earnings after the close.

MNI: mni: FED MEMBERS STRONGLY DIFFERED ON DEC CUT-MINUTES

Nov-19 19:00
  • MNI: FED MEMBERS STRONGLY DIFFERED ON DEC CUT-MINUTES
  • FED: SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS SAW DECEMBER CUT AS APPROPRIATE
  • FED: MANY SUGGESTED KEEP RATES STEADY FOR REST OF YEAR
  • FED: MOST SAW FURTHER CUTS LIKELY APPROPRIATE OVER TIME
  • FED: MOST AGREED FURTHER CUTS COULD ADD TO INFLATION
  • FED: ALL AGREED POLICY NOT ON A PRESET COURSE
  • FED STAFF: RESERVES TO DIP TO QUITE LOW LEVELS AT TIMES
  • FED STAFF BRIEFING ON SRF, CENTRAL CLEARING

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remain Bullish

Nov-19 19:00
  • RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
  • RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
  • RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
  • RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
  • PRICE: 0.8827 @ 17:24 GMT Nov 19
  • SUP 1: 0.8783 20-day EMA   
  • SUP 2: 0.8769 Low Nov 10
  • SUP 3: 0.8740 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend set-up in EURGBPis unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. A fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8783, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.