MEXICO: EURMXN Near Three-Year High
Apr-11 13:39
- The Mexican peso has given up most of its earlier gains against the dollar, despite broad pressures on the greenback Friday amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. USDMXN traded as low as 20.2994 following the soft US PPI data, before rising back to familiar territory nearer 20.40.
- After yesterday’s Banxico minutes hinted that US tariffs could lead to a further downward revision of its 0.6% 2025 GDP forecast, CIBC maintain their call for two consecutive 50bp rate cuts in Q2 and a terminal rate of 7.5% by the end of Q3. They expect USD/MXN to continue its upward path back to the 20.70-21.00 range in the coming days.
- Meanwhile, with US dollar selling resuming after the US data, EURUSD (+1.7%) and USDJPY (-1.3%) continue to see large moves on the session. As such, MXN has seen further losses against both the Euro and the Japanese yen today. EURMXN (+1.2%) rose to a fresh 3-year high at 23.52 earlier, before paring gains.
- MXNJPY remains 1% lower and below the psychological 7.00 mark. We have noted that medium term targets for MXNJPY are located at 6.7911 and 6.5885.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Metals Tariffs Take Effect, EU Hits Back
Mar-12 13:33
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- President Donald Trump sought to downplay this week’s market selloff in remarks at a Business Roundtable event yesterday. His appearance came ahead of the next major step in Trump’s trade war, with a universal tariff on steel and aluminium going into effect at 00:01 this morning.
- The tariff implementation followed tariff threats exchanged with Canadian officials that ended in détente following a call between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
- Canadian PM-designate Mark Carney appeared to offer some concessions on key issues.
- Europe responded most forcefully to metals tariffs, with the EU imposing immediate reciprocal tariffs on USD$28.4 billion worth of US goods.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the Britain will take a "pragmatic approach".
- Australian PM Anthony Albanese said he would not impose reciprocal tariffs.
- South Korea said that it will go into "full emergency response mode".
- The House of Representatives passed a government funding package to keep the government operating through September 30, teeing up another challenging vote in the Senate. Should Congress pass the government funding package, attention will turn to raising the debt limit.
- US officials will discuss truce terms with Russia today after Ukraine accepted a US-brokered ceasefire framework.
- The Education Department will cut more than 1,300 jobs.
- Poll of the Day: Americans are “not impressed” with Trump’s stewardship of the economy.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
US TSY OPTIONS: May'25 10Y Straddle Buy
Mar-12 13:27
- +5,000 TYJ5 110.5 straddles, 63 ref 110-19.5
EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls
Mar-12 13:25
SPX: 5,626.8 (+1.0%); DJIA: 41,653 (+0.5%/+219pts); NDX: 19,661.3 (+1.5%).
