CANADA: EURCAD Approaching Key Pandemic Pivot Around 1.6000 [2/2]
- However, a reading in line with or below expectations would keep the door open to a cut amid a pullback in the 3mma annualized rate in trim/median average to 3.1/3.2% from 3.4% prior. A key beneficiary of any follow through Canadian dollar weakness would likely be EURCAD, given the ongoing resilience for the single currency and the close proximity to key medium-term technical parameters for the cross.
- EURCAD's Monday close was the second highest of the year, and puts spot within range of heavy layered resistance between 1.5960 - 1.5990, daily highs dating back to the covid pandemic in 2020. Clearance of this area and the psychological 1.6000 mark would place the cross at levels last seen in 2018 and target 1.6153, the 2018 highs.
- Deutsche Bank have stated that CAD is one of their less preferred currencies – their forecasts for G10 have only the dollar and CHF performing worse, and in Blueprint they recommend long EURCAD.
- Aside from the data, the now-prolonged trade talks with the US remain another key driver, on which Carney stated his government are still focused on after the most recent call with US president Trump. Separately, the EU and Canada signed a security and defense agreement on Monday, meant to be a step in a New EU-Canada Strategic Partnership of the Future.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
