POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: CWE Power Futures Diverge, Nordics Rise
German and French front-month power contracts are diverging in Tuesday’s session amid mixed weather forecasts. Nordic December power ended the session higher with forecasts pointing to a drier outlook.
- Nordic Base Power DEC 25 up 1.7% at 62.4 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 up 2.7% at 65.08 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power DEC 25 down 0.2% at 98.22 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.8% at 80.63 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.1% at 31.1 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has reversed earlier slight losses amid signs of increased Egyptian LNG demand, though remains in range overall as the market awaits any signs of significant cold temperatures.
- EUAs Dec25 are rising, tracking gains in EU and UK equities. Afternoon gains of up to 0.40% in STOXX and 0.77% in FTSE lifted EUAs from early losses into positive territory.
- EnBW’s hedging for delivery years 2026-28 could rise notably, according to MNI calculations, with 2026 hedges potentially climbing to 90-100%, as the company approaches its 3Q25 results on 13 November.
- TenneT Germany has launched its Green Finance Framework to support a €65bn investment in expanding and modernising its transmission grid through to 2029.
- FRV has submitted a 1.8GW portfolio of fully permitted solar and BESS projects to the UK’s Gate 2 window of NESO’s Connection Reform Process, seeking advanced connection dates before 2030.
- Italian power consumption is forecast to average 31.7GW this winter, down by 0.3GW on the year, but revised up by 0.2GW from last month’s forecast.
- Spanish hydropower reserves last week edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 51.4% of capacity, rising for the first time since late May.
- Enefit Power has won a €59.5 mn/yr contract to secure Estonia’s electricity system islanding capability, guaranteeing 1.036GW of emergency capacity.
- Uniper is mothballing the 335MW Karlshamnverket 2 oil-fired power plant in southern Sweden following the cancellation of the procurement of Sweden’s strategic power reserve last month.
- Cez increased its power hedging over 2026-29 delivery years, relatively in line with MNI’s expectations, with the firm boosting its emission hedging to the highest so far this year.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
