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Dec-24 11:39

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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Points North

Nov-24 11:35
  • In FX, the short-term trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish and the pair continues to trade below resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a key short-term reversal trigger. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish theme.
  • The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Clearance of the bear trigger at 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3167. A clear break of it would signal a stronger corrective cycle.
  • Fresh cycle highs last week in USDJPY reinforce current strong bullish conditions and a rally on Nov 19, highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 158.00 handle next. Support to watch is 154.54, the 20-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered overbought territory. A pullback would be considered corrective.

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, IP Annual Rev, Tsy Auctions

Nov-24 11:30
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
  • 11/24 0830 Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators, Nov advance release
  • 11/24 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Nov (-5.0, -2.0)
  • 11/24 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
  • 11/24 1200 Fed Annual Revision to Industrial Production
  • 11/24 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CPL9)
  • Source: Bloomberg, WH Press Pool, MNI

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme

Nov-24 11:20
  • RES 4: 114-02   High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 3: 113-29   High Oct 22
  • RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28 
  • RES 1: 113-14   High Nov 21
  • PRICE:‌‌ 113-10 @ 11:09 GMT Nov 24
  • SUP 1: 112-11+/09 100-dma / Trendline drawn from the May 22 low
  • SUP 2: 112-06   Low Sep 25 and a key support 
  • SUP 3: 111-31   Low Sep 2 
  • SUP 4: 111-23   50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg 

A bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact. Last week’s breach of resistance at 113-02, an area of congestion since Nov 5, marks a bullish development and suggests scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. Note that the move higher also cancels a recent short-term bearish theme. Key support to watch is 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support, drawn from the May 22 low, lies at 112-09.