POWER: EdF, Exeltium Sign Electricity Access Agreement

• RES 4: 7100.00 Round number support 
• RES 3: 7044.82 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6988.00 High Dec 12    
• PRICE: 6929.25 @ 14:18 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 6864.00 Low Dec 12  
• SUP 2: 6828.90 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and a fresh short-term cycle high last week strengthens the bull theme. Sights are on 7014.00, the Oct 30 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. This would open the 7044.82 area, a Bollinger band resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6828.90, the 50-day EMA. Key support and a reversal trigger is at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. 

SPX: 6,883.1 (+0.8%); DJIA: 48,812 (+0.7%/+353pts); NDX: 25,436.0 (+0.9%).

The composition of November CPI was in line with MNI's expectations, with core items' moderation - led by services, offset by core goods' stubbornness - contrasting with an acceleration in food and energy prices. 

• On the headline side, overall inflation came in basically as expected at 2.22% (2.3% consensus though lean had been toward the lower side of that unrounded), basically unchanged from 2.16% prior. And while energy prices saw less deflation (-5.1% Y/Y after -6.5%) as anticipated, the more significant surprise on the headline side was food which jumped by 4.2% Y/Y (3.4% prior), the highest since 2023 - led by grocery price inflation (4.7%). Overall food and energy ticked up to 1.6% Y/Y, after 0.6% prior.
• Within most core items however, moderation continued. Overall core goods prices continued to tick up, rising to a 4-month high 1.9% Y/Y (1.6% prior), but services prices printed a 3-month low 2.8% (3.2% prior).
• Shelter prices - around 30% of overall CPI, and seen as one of the key drivers of further CPI deceleration - ticked down to 2.3% Y/Y from 2.5% prior, lowest since February 2021 as there was notable disinflation in both owned (1.7% after 2.0%) and rented (4.6% after 5.1%) accommodation prices.
• Elsewhere, transportation (0.7% for a 2nd month) and recreation/education (12-month low 0.4% after 2.0%) - which total an additional 27% of CPI - kept a lid on overall inflation.
• They offset modest pickups in clothing and footwear (0.8% after -0.3%), household operations (32-month high 3.3% after 2.9%), and health and personal care (11-month high 3.0% after 2.5%), which total around 23% of the basket.
• We note that for overall goods prices (1.5% Y/Y after 0.9%, in a series that continues fluctuating month-to-month), there was an acceleration across categories: durables (4-month high 2.7% after 2.3%), semidurables (0.6% after 0.2%), and nondurables (1.3% after 0.4%) all picked up.
• While combined they are below 2% and thus it's still services keeping overall inflation at the high end of the BOC's comfort range, the pickup is notable in part because the Canadian government's decision in September to drop retaliatory tariffs on the US was seen to help moderate incoming goods price pressures.