EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Has Pierced The 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6857.75/6953.75 High Nov 5 / High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6701.25 @ 14:43 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 6690.75 Low Oct 22
- SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 bull cycle
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. Today’s move down has resulted in a test of support around the 50-day EMA, at 6708.51. A clear break of this level average would strengthen a short-term bear theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 6540.25 initially, the Oct 10 low. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high.
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SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Talks Enter "Critical Point"
Amichai Stein at the Jerusalem Post reports on X regarding ongoing Gaza peace talks in Egypt, “Israeli and foreign sources are telling me in the last hour: "Optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, entering the critical hours."”
- Roi Kais at KAN reports similarly, “A senior American official told the "Sky News" channel in Arabic that "the professional discussions in Sharm el-Sheikh have reached a critical point." He added that they are "optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future."”
- Jennifer Griffin at Fox News reports, “Fox News can confirm Secretary of State Rubio will be in Paris tomorrow (Thursday) for high-level ministerial meetings on Gaza plans. The talks will include representatives from France, the UK, Germany, Gulf region countries, Turkey and others.” The report confirms earlier MNI bullet, see: MIDEAST: Rubio To Attend Paris Gaza Meet; Expanded Hamas-Israel Talks Continue
- JPost reported earlier that Hamas "requested written guarantees of Israel’s commitment to a ceasefire" as US President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh to join negotiations.
- A spokesperson for Hamas' political wing said the group had “presented the necessary positivity and responsibility” to advance efforts toward an agreement. Mediators, he said, were “making great efforts to remove any obstacles,” and that “a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” per JPost.
OPTIONS: JPY Rally Prompts Outsized Demand for Hedges, Curve Distorted
A stellar session for FX options volumes, with Tuesday trade also highly active. Tuesday saw over $120bln notional cross the DTCC, rivalling the busiest sessions of September - and today's trade so far looks similar.
- USDJPY options cover remains the busiest market (as has been the case everyday this week), with volumes over double the average for this time of day - with calls unsurprisingly in demand (well over $3 in calls have traded for every $2 in puts so far today) as markets scramble for upside exposure on the spot rally.
- Takaichi's LDP victory has really supported the vol curve - particularly in the front-end and adding to inverting pressures. This reflects growing concerns of a further USDJPY rally - or potentially official intervention to cool the sharp JPY weakness, although we noted earlier today that official language & price action is yet to mirror historical pre-intervention patterns.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: 0RM6 98.25 Calls Lifted
0RM6 98.25 calls paper paid 5.25-5.5 on 9K (ref. 97.91).
