JAPAN: DPFP Chief-LDP's Takaichi Proposed Coalition, More Talks 20 Oct

Of Note:

EURUSD ~1.5bn at 1.1690/1.1700.

EURUSD 1.48bn at 1.1750 and 1.54bn at 1.1800 (tue).

EURUSD 2.07bn at 1.1700 (thu).

AUDUSD 1.2bn at 0.6600/0.6615 (thu).

• EURUSD: 1.1650 (794mln), 1.1690 (967mln), 1.1700 (538mln), 1.1735 (266mln), 1.1750 (553mln), 1.1800 (731mln).
• GBPUSD: 1.3500 (776mln).
• USDJPY: 147.50 (265mln), 147.70 (541mln).
• USDCAD: 1.3850 (323mln).

For a summary of ECBspeak since the September decision, see here.

Last week’s ECB decision saw the bar to another cut pushed a little higher, with the outlook now considered to be “more balanced” and the Governing Council not willing to react to “small deviations” from the updated inflation projections. Focus in the days since the September decision has been on ECBspeak. Broadly speaking, there are three Governing Council camps that appear to be emerging:

• Those who believe downside inflation risks still dominate, and providing explicit suggestions that another cut is possible
• Those providing no commitment either way at this stage.
• Those with little appetite to deliver another cut.

As noted elsewhere, this morning’s bid in European benchmark equity indices seems to be applying pressure to the broader USD.

• Westpac have warned that the USD is at risk of a sustained decline, with particular focus on inflation risks limiting the Fed’s cutting cycle and prolonging a weaker economic growth profile in the U.S. (along with ongoing fiscal uncertainty).
• As a result, Westpac expect “the DXY to slowly retreat to roughly halfway between its 10-year and 20-year averages, respectively 98.5 and 90.3, with a low of around 93.5 forecast for the second half of 2027”… “Underlying this trend decline are steady gains for EUR/USD, from 1.17 today to 1.20 end-2026 and 1.21 end-2027, and for GBP/USD, from 1.36 currently to 1.38 end-2027”.