CANADA: Dovish Rates Reaction To BoC Gains Ground, FX Unfazed
Jan-29 15:26
- 2Y GoCs have extended a dovish reversal of what was initially, and only briefly, a small hawkish reaction to the BoC statements.
- 2Y yields are now 3bp lower for -5.5bp on the day, setting new lows since 2022 in the process.
- It sees the Can-US 2Y differential fall to fresh multi-decade lows of -142bps (-3bp post-decision, -5.7bp on the day).
- BoC-dated OIS currently shows a rough 50/50 call for a 25bp cut or pause with the March decision, whilst CORRA futures are 2.5-3bp lower across the curve implying a terminal of 2.5-2.55% depending on spread assumptions.
USDCAD meanwhile, at 1.4440, is still within a few pips of pre-announcement levels, remaining below the session high of 1.4472 and resistance at 1.4516 (Jan 21 high).
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STIR: BLOCK: Jun'25 SOFR Call Spreads vs. Puts
Dec-30 15:09
- 15,000 SFRM5 96.125/96.62 call spds 4.5 over SFRM5 95.56 puts vs. 95.945/0.36% crossed at 1004:08ET
MNI: US NAR NOV PENDING HOME SALES INDEX 79 V 77.3 IN OCT
Dec-30 15:00
- MNI: US NAR NOV PENDING HOME SALES INDEX 79 V 77.3 IN OCT
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US DATA: MNI Chicago Report™: Most Plan Rise In Inventory Due To Strike Risk
Dec-30 14:51
The Chicago Report™ also asked firms in December “Have you put any contingency plans in place in the event of a further port worker strikes?” Of the respondents that answered:
- Almost half (48%) were looking to increase inventories of raw materials.
- A third (33%) expressed plans to increase finished goods inventory.
- Only 10% selected plans to increase production.
- Again none planned to increase employment levels and 24% selected “Other”.
