US: Democrat-Affiliated Pollster Sees Economy/Heathcare As Trump Vulnerability
Oct-24 17:13
Democrat-affiliated progressive polling outfit, Blueprint Research, reports that Democrats have a ‘political opening’ for political messaging during the government shutdown, as Americans now broadly believe that President Donald Trump "owns the economy".
- The report notes, “Voters blame Republicans for rising prices and inflation—and when you zero in, they blame Trump specifically. But while Trump now bears the brunt of blame for high costs, congressional Republicans remain relatively insulated, with congressional Democrats receiving twice as much blame as their GOP counterparts for rising prices and inflation.”
- The report povides advice for Democrats on how to "make the most" of the "spotlight" during the government shutdown: “Democrats would be wise to make the most of voters’ grievances with an economy they now associate with President Trump, building on their existing push to protect healthcare while advancing bolder action on grocery and pharmaceutical costs, paid family leave, and the child tax credit.”
- The report is the second in as many days appearing to add weight to the justification for Democrats shutting down the government. The polling suggests that there isn't yet sufficient public opinion pressure on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to reopen the government. See: US: Progressive Pollster Supports DEM Belief That GOP Bears Brunt Of Shutdown
Figure 1: Which party is to blame for the following problems?
Source: Blueprint Research
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 5Y Auction: Small Tail
Sep-24 17:05
- Tsy futures show little reaction (FVZ5 at 109-10.75 from 109-10.5 at the cutoff) after the latest $70B 5Y note auction (91282CPA3) tails slightly: 3.710% high yield vs. 3.709% WI; 2.34x bid-to-cover vs. 2.36x prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up slips to 59.42% from 60.48% prior, directs slip to 28.64% vs. 30.74% prior, while primary dealer take-up climbs to 11.94% vs. 8.78% prior.
- The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for October 27.
FED: US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.710%; ALLOTMENT 41.92%
Sep-24 17:02
- US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.710%; ALLOTMENT 41.92%
- US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 11.94% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 28.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.42% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.34
FOREX: USD Index Extends to Fresh Recovery Highs, NZD Extends Lower
Sep-24 17:01
- Across the session, the greenback has been steadily appreciating, resulting in the USD index rising above last week’s post-Fed recovery highs. The next level for the DXY resides at the 50-day EMA, intersecting today just below the 98.00 mark. Despite a fleeting surge above this average in late July, daily closes above have been rare since February this year. A more lasting break could signal scope for a stronger dollar correction to the topside.
- Bar the outperforming Aussie following higher-than-expected CPI data, losses across the G10 have been broad based, with both the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar underperforming.
- USDJPY (+0.75%) picked up some momentum above 148.38 resistance earlier today, and spot has narrowed the gap to 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Meanwhile, GBPUSD has pierced S-T trendline support, strengthening a bearish threat.
- One chart level that particularly stands out is NZDUSD (-0.80%), as the pair approaches the key 0.5800 pivot support, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the year’s range. Price action has been exacerbated by the break of a short-term trendline and should we break the figure, 0.5728 and 0.5636 would be the most obvious targets for a deeper selloff. Today's dynamic have propelled AUDNZD to another fresh cycle high of 1.1341, extending the cross' impressive rally in recent months.
- USDCHF is up around half a percent as we approach tomorrow’s SNB decision. Analysts expect a hold at 0.00% as most likely, with a cut into negative territory appearing improbable.
- In terms of data, the third read of US GDP will cross, as well as weekly jobless claims. Durable goods and existing home sales data are also scheduled.
