US: Progressive Pollster Supports DEM Believe That GOP Bears Brunt Of Shutdown
Oct-23 18:14
Progressive polling outlet Navigator Research reports, “More Americans blame Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown than blame Democrats, with no shift in the last two weeks.”
- The report adds, “More think Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats than the reverse, and more see Trump and Republicans as having power over whether the shutdown continues.”
- The report suggests that Democrats are likely to continue to believe that the political fallout of the US government shutdown will primarily fall upon Republicans and Trump, despite the fact that Senate Democrats are responsible for the shutdown.
Figure 1: “Who do you blame most for the shutdown?”
Source: Navigator Research
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BOC: Ahead Of Macklem Speech, Next Cut Not Fully Priced Until January
Sep-23 18:01
Reminder that BOC Governor Macklem speaks soon on "Global trade and capital flows" before the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership and the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce - timing of approximately 1430ET. Macklem will take reporters' questions at around 1545ET.
- Livestream link here
- Implied BOC meeting cut pricing is little changed this week so far, with October's pointing to around 55-60% implied probability of a follow-up 25bp rate cut (~14bp, depending on your CORRA assumptions), and a 25bp cut fully priced cumulatively by January. There's still only one full cut still seen for the cycle, though.
- Indeed, pricing hasn't changed much since last week's post-meeting press conference, in which Macklem entertained questions about what would trigger a further cut. The overall communications highlighted risks to growth and employment alongside what the BOC sees as better-contained inflationary pressures than had been feared in the summer. MNI's review of the meeting is here
- He continually mentioned the need for a balanced approach to future rate-setting, moving meeting-by- meeting and keeping the next decision in October live. This was summed up by his comment: “what we can do is help the economy adjust while maintaining wellcontrolled inflation. That's what we're focused on... it's going to be about balancing those risks. If the risks tilt, if the risks shift, we're prepared to take action, and if the risks tilt further, we're prepared to take more action, but we're going to take it one meeting at a time. We are taking a shorter horizon. We're being a little less forward looking than usual, and we'll make that risk assessment in October when we get there."
| Meeting | Current | Last Week's Close (Sep 19) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.40 | 2.41 | -0.8 | -14.3 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.32 | 2.32 | -0.1 | -22.3 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2.28 | 2.27 | 0.5 | -26.9 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 2.23 | 2.25 | -1.3 | -31.1 |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2.20 | 2.22 | -1.7 | -34.2 |
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $4.5B Enel Finance 4Pt Launched
Sep-23 17:59
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/23 $5B #Lowes $650M 2Y +37, $750M 3Y +47, $1.1B +5Y +62, $1.3B 7Y +67, $1.2B 10Y +77
- 09/23 $4.5B #Enel Finance $1B 3Y +65, $1.25B 5Y +80, $1.25B 10Y +100, $1B 30Y +112
- 09/23 $1.5B #MuniFin 3Y SOFR+35
- 09/23 $1.2B #Gildan Activewear $600M each: 5Y +103, 10Y +130
- 09/23 $1B #Nationwide BS $700M 5Y +68, $300M 5Y SOFR+101
- 09/23 $500M #AfDB PerpNC10 5.875%
- 09/23 $500M #CK Hutchison 5Y +62.5
- 09/23 $Benchmark American Electric 30.5NC5.25 5.8%, 30.5NC10.25 6.05%
SOFR OPTIONS: Dec'25 SOFR Call Fly & Prior Trades
Sep-23 17:54
- +20,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.50/96.62 call flys, 2.5-2.75 ref 96.33
- +30,000 SFRH6 97.25 calls 3.0 vs. 96.55/0.10%
- -20,000 SFRH6 96.75/97.00 call spds 4.5 vs. 96.545
