EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 172.32/173.97 High Jul 29 / 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 170.28 @ 07:16 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 169.73/45 Intraday low / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 2: 169.05 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now a pullback is considered corrective. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper correction that highlights potential for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 169.05 - a key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of Monday's 173.97 high would resume the bull cycle.
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BUNDS: The Divergence vs the US is in Focus
- Bund might be showing 25 ticks up going into the Cash Open, testing the intraday high on low volumes after the 2.60% area in Yield held again Yesterday, printed a 2.612% high.
- But the continued divergence against the US Tnotes (TYU5) will be watched, the US 10yr Yield tested the 4.20% level, initial support was seen Yesterday at 4.1942%, which equated to 112.11 Yesterday.
- Today's printed high in TYU5 is just 2.5 ticks off that level.
- For the German Bund, support moves down to the 130.00 figure, while the initial resistance remains unchanged at 130.80.
- Today's Manufacturing PMIs are final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, the focus Today is on the EU Prelim CPI, US ISM Mfg and JOLTS.
- ECB CPI expectations are also due for release.
- SUPPLY: UK £2bn 30yr (equates to 19.3k Gilt) could somewhat weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed Powell, BoE Bailey, BoJ Ueda.
SOFR OPTIONS: SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 Put Spread Sold
SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread 2K given at 3.25
BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.00 @ Close Jun 30
- SUP 1: 119.91 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Gains earlier this month reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 119.91, the May 29 low.
