USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

Germany is due to hold a 15-year Bund auction today while Italy will hold a buyback auction. Later this week, Spain, France and Belgium will all look to hold auctions. The EFSF held a syndication yesterday while the EU, Austria and Germany have held auctions this week. We pencil in issuance of E34.1bln for the week, up from E31.0bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily with a recap of issuance this week and a look ahead to rest of the week's issuance as well as next week, click here.

• Italy will look to buyback up to E5.0bln today via Banca d'Italia. It will look to purchase the following: the 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302), the 4.50% Mar-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0004644735), the 3.80% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005538597), the 2.10% Jul-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005370306), the 3.85% Sep-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005556011) and the Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
• Germany will return to the market this morning to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135481).

The EU is still scheduled to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and the ESM have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E27.3bln in first round operations, up from E13.9bln last week.

• To conclude issuance for the week today, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8830 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8819 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 5
• SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8741 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8707 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The break last week of resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and this week's fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.