EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 179.60 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 178.00 Round number resistance
- PRICE: 177.87 @ 07:18 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 176.90/175.13 Low Oct 7 / High Sep 29
- SUP 2: 174.37 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and fresh cycle highs this week strengthen current conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the move higher this week also marks an acceleration of the bull cycle. Sights are on the 178.00 handle next. A break of this level would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $66.57 @ 07:06 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Recent short-term gains in Brent futures are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
EGBS: OATs Unmoved By Bayrou’s Expected Ousting; Supply Picks Up Today
- Bund futures traded in a tight 13 tick Asia-Pac range, currently -10 ticks at 129.21. The light pullback is considered corrective, with firm support not seen till 128.25 (Sep 4 low). In the interim, there may be some downside interest in the round-number 129.00 level, which shields the 50-day EMA (128.69) and 20-day EMA (128.53).
- As expected, French PM Bayrou was ousted by a no-confidence vote yesterday. There was little to no reaction in OAT futures (currently -2 ticks at 121.87). Macron’s office has said he will appoint a new PM in the “coming days”, once again pushing back on calling another legislative election.
- EGB supply picks up today, which may weigh on futures this morning: EU to hold a 5/30-year syndication (MNI expects a combined size of E9-14bln, skewed towards E11-12bln); The Netherlands to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 4.00% Jan-37 DSL; Austria to sell E1.15bln of the 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB; Germany to sell E500mln of the 0% Aug-31 Green Bund and E1bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund.
- French industrial production is due at 0745BST. It isn’t usually a huge market mover, but may come under more scrutiny today following the latest domestic political developments.
- ECB’s Villeroy and Nagel speak at a BIS summit this afternoon – don’t expect any monetary policy signals ahead of Thursday’s decision.
- MNI’s ECB preview will be released later today.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 120.61 High Aug 14
- RES 1: 120.42 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 120.35 @ Close Sep 8
- SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
