FRANCE DATA: Consumer Spending Rises Again But Tepid Trend Remains
France consumer spending was a little stronger than expected in October for a third consecutive increase, with a boost from energy consumption during a colder October. The Y/Y tilted back into positive territory for the first time since June but it's only at 0.4% and longer-term trends remain tepid at best.
- Consumer spending increased 0.4% M/M in real terms in October, slightly beating consensus of 0.3% and up from 0.3% prior. This was the third consecutive positive reading.
- The Y/Y rate also came in at 0.4%, up from -0.2% prior to leave it at the higher end of a tepid range since 2023 (during which it's averaged -0.7% Y/Y).
- The euro-value level of consumer spending has now unwound July's 0.5% M/M drop. It takes goods-based consumer spending volumes to their highest since December but they are still some 3% below pre-pandemic levels.
- Back to monthly drivers, spending on energy continues to accelerate, printing at 1.4% M/M (after 0.6% Sep). INSEE highlights a relatively colder October than the previous three years.
- Food consumption increased 0.4% (after 0.1% Sep). Ex-tobacco, the rate is slightly higher at 0.5% (vs 0.2% Sep), as tobacco consumption declined for the sixth consecutive month.
- Durable goods saw a 0.1% rise, though in September grew a notable 0.7%. Manufactured goods stayed relatively stable at 0.1% (vs 0.3% Sep).
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $46.167 @ 08:23 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: $45.652 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low AUg 27
Trend signals in Silver are bullish and the latest sharp pullback is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition has been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this to unwind. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at $45.652. It remains intact but a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is at $49.456, the Oct 23 high.
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4039/80 High Oct 24 / 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3937 @ 08:16 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 1.3915 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3840 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
A short-term bear leg in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is approaching the next important support, at 1.3915, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose a channel support at 1.3840. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. Note that the trend condition remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. Key resistance is at 1.4080, the Oct 16 high.
