CANADA DATA: CMHC Survey Shows Rising Concerns For Mortgage Borrowers
May-21 18:32
The 2025 CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey (link) showed an increase in mortgage holders having difficulty meeting bill payments, with "economic reasons" cited as a cause for concern over mortgage default:
- "This year's survey indicates an increase in consumers who had difficulty maintaining debt payments (51% in 2025 compared to 42% in 2024). Primarily due to economic reasons, 14% missed a mortgage payment. Credit cards were the type of debt mortgage consumers had the most difficulty maintaining (26%), followed by their mortgage payment (17%). More mortgage consumers are using one type of credit to pay off another (22% in 2025 compared to 15% in 2024)."
- Additionally "The proportion of consumers concerned about defaulting on their mortgage remained stable (53% in 2025 and 50% in 2024). Causes for concern were mainly based on economic reasons, with cost of living being the biggest driver at 45%"
- This came despite a pullback in mortgage rates from peak - and may not yet fully reflect a deterioration in confidence / labour market / activity amid the US-Canada trade dispute (the survey was conducted in early January, before US President Trump's inauguration). A pullback in house prices will not have helped either.
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- Risk sentiment continues to sour, stocks at or near session lows at the moment as are Tsy futures (TYM5 -10.5 at 110-27, still above pre-open lo of 110-22).
- Market reactions to headline risk, latest focus partially tied to headlines that the WH is in the process of replacing Sec of Defense Hegseth following reports of another Signal Chat leak made the rounds. Politico reported GOP Rep Bacon said "Hegseth should Go".
- Conversely, WH Press Sec Leavitt just said the NPR report is false. Global trade remains the greater concern as markets await something concrete in tariff negotiations vs. hopes and promises that talks with dozens of countries is going well.
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