USDCAD TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4096 High Nov 4
- PRICE: 1.4088 @ 16:19 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 1.3987 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3928 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3855 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
A strong rally in USDCAD last week, and this week’s extension, highlights a clear reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. The pair has breached 1.4080, the Oct 16 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant bull cycle. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high. First support lies at 1.3987, the 20-day EMA.
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Monday
| 0430BST | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Thailand Sep CPI |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1600AEDT | India Sep F HSBC PMI Services |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Monday
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | New Zealand ANZ Sep Commodity Price |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Sep Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
JAPAN: Yen Slumps On Surprise Takaichi Victory, Focus On Fiscal/BOJ Outlook
Japan markets will be in focus in the first part of Monday trade, following Sanae Takaichi's victory in the weekend LDP leadership election. This is no doubt a surprise to the market given market odds, per Polymarket were firmly in favour of Koizumi winning the race. His odds were at 82 on Friday, versus Takaichi who was at low of 12 before Saturday's vote.
- An extraordinary session of the Diet will be held around Oct to choose a new PM. Goldman Sachs notes: "Since Ms. Takaichi has stated that the LDP and Komei coalition comes first, but would consider adding parties that share the same basic policy philosophy to the coalition, we assume that the minority government formed by the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition will continue, seeking cooperation from opposition parties on a case-by-case basis."
- However, it adds that given Takaichi's policy bias around pro-fiscal policy it could expand the coalition to include like minded parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People.
- This will be a key focus points for markets, given Takaichi's historical position around supporting fiscal policy to support growth. Her stance appeared to soften somewhat as the leadership campaign unfolded, she is expected to focus on cash handouts and tax rebates for households to reduce cost of living pressures. Via BBG: "While saying her spending plans will be “responsible” and that she’ll ensure the nation’s net debt load will fall over time, she said “the goal is achieving economic growth, not fiscal health,”
- This comes at a time when fiscal policy uncertainty has already been elevated in Japan, with the JGB yield curve just off historically steep levels.
- On the BoJ, via BBG: "In the latest leadership campaign, she toned down her scathing views on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes from last year, when she described its raising of rates as “stupid.” But in a recent Kyodo survey she still said the BOJ should leave interest rates unchanged for now."
- This has helped drive USD/JPY higher this morning, up 1.4% to 149.50/55, with end Sep highs just short of 150.00 now in focus.
