USDJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 1: 150.00 Round number resistance
- PRICE: 149.87 @ 10:47 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 147.30 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.33/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place and this week’s climb reinforces this theme - the pair has breached the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend, signalling scope for an extension towards the 150.00 handle. Pivot support to monitor is 146.33, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a reversal. First support is at 147.30, the 20-day EMA.
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BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/11-Month TCs
| Maturity | Oct 16, 2025 | Jan 15, 2026 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.153bln | E907mln | E1.162bln |
| Target | E2.8-3.2bln | Shared | Shared |
| Previous | E880mln | E1.03bln | E1.601bln |
| Avg yield | 1.911% | 1.916% | 1.907% |
| Previous | 1.911% | 1.916% | 1.926% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.44x | 1.67x | 1.97x |
| Previous | 2.77x | 2.06x | 2.21x |
| Previous date | Jun 10, 2025 | Jun 03, 2025 | Jun 10, 2025 |
EGBS: Bund Futures Follow USTs Higher But Initial Resistance Untested
Bund futures have followed US Treasuries higher through the European morning, now +49 ticks at 130.64. Futures reached a session high of 130.73 earlier, leaving initial resistance at 130.80 (June 26 high) untested. Key resistance has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
- The German curve has bull flattened, with 30-year yields down 6bps to 3.04%.
- There have been several ECB speakers this morning, with the annual Sintra forum well underway. Most notably, Vice President de Guindos suggested a EURUSD exchange rate above 1.20 would be “complicated”, hinting at weaker imported price pressures and less competitive export markets.
- Indeed, while the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI essentially confirmed flash estimates (49.5 vs 49.4 flash and prior), both the Spanish and German readings referenced disinflationary forces from the exchange rate.
- Eurozone flash June headline and core inflation were in line with consensus at 2.0% Y/Y and 2.3% respectively. Services ticked up modestly to 3.3% YY (vs 3.2% prior). ECB 1-year ahead May consumer inflation expectations fell to 2.8% (vs 3.1% prior).
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 1bp of yesterday’s closing levels. Ireland will hold one auction in Q3 (in September), but did not comment on whether we will see further auctions in Q4 or not.
- The remainder of today’s session includes appearances from ECB’s Schnabel and Lagarde. The ECB’s seasonally adjusted inflation metrics will also be released in due course.
