EURJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 165.94 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.36 @ 09:12 GMT May 2
- SUP 1: 161.43/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact as prices showed through the bull trigger on the Thursday/Friday rally. Attention is on 164.90, the Dec 30 high and medium-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.57, the 50-day EMA.
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EGBS: Citi Retain Long Duration Bias Into Tariff Announcement, Eye IRISH In MT
Citi note that “even after adjusting for fiscal spending, Bunds lag by around 15bp on a regression with a basket of tariff-sensitive EUR equities”.
- They go on to write “into today’s tariff announcement, we prefer bullish/dovish exposure to EUR duration. For EGB spreads, the indifference towards richening Bund swap spreads has tended to be short-lived in the past”.
- “The recent EGB resilience might have been driven by relatively clean positioning, investors waiting for more clarity and prospects of more ECB rate cuts in case of punitive tariffs but ignores their growth implications.”
- As a result, they “retain bearish exposure to periphery spreads into the announcement, with the 10-Year BTP/Bund spread now close to the tight end of its range”.
- At a more granular level, they note that “tariff risks within EMU-11 seem most acute for Germany, Italy, and Ireland while Spain and France seem relatively shielded. This was likely behind the YtD underperformance of IRISH credit, which continued yesterday, despite still-strong fundamentals otherwise. These headwinds are likely to persist for now, although we believe value in the Irish credit is being built for the medium-term”.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.0800.
EURUSD 2.3bn at 1.0800 (thu).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (thu).
EURUSD 1.53bn at 1.0800 (fri).
USDCAD 1.19bn at 1.4350 (fri).
AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6300 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.43bn at 0.6350 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.0700 (1.11bn), 1.0750 (525mln), 1.0790 (362mln), 1.0800 (972mln).
- USDJPY: 149.80 (278mln), 149.95 (299mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4300 (307mln), 1.4350 (425mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5775 (427mln).
OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0790-00(E1.9bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.80-95($577mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3780($1.1bln), C$1.4400-15($924mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.3bln)
