CANADA DATA: CFIB Small Business Sentiment Recovery Stalls

Trump administration economists are spotlighting a little-noticed piece of federal data on production of business equipment that “they argue shows a business investment surge is in the works — one that could have lasting consequences for U.S. growth”, according to Axios.

• Axios notes: “Industrial production of business equipment is an early indicator of capital spending — investments in property, equipment and technology — that ultimately fuels higher productivity and higher incomes."
• Axios adds: “Production of business equipment in the second quarter averaged 7.9% higher than in the final three months of last year, which works out to a 16.5% annual rate. That was the highest two-quarter rise since 1997, other than in the immediate pandemic bounce-back in 2020.”
• Axios has “learned that Treasury officials will soon begin highlighting this data as a key economic achievement of the administration… Trump administration officials view increasing business capital investment as the linchpin of their economic agenda, including ultimately driving gains in blue-collar wages.”

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 07/22 $Benchmark General Electric 5Y +47, +10Y +62
• 07/22 $Benchmark NY Life 3Y +40, 3Y SOFR+66
• 07/22 $1.5B #Wells Fargo 2031-tap +72
• Expected Wednesday:
• 07/23 $Benchmark JFM (Japan Finance Org for Munis) 5Y SOFR+68a

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1899 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1750/1829 High Jul 10 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1707 @ 15:45 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 1.1557 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 1.1525 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD has recovered from last week’s 1.1557 low, on Jul 17. Recent weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50day EMA , at 1.1525. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. For now, trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.