CANADA: Carney To Meet Trump On Tue 6 May-BBG
Bloomberg reports that Canadian PM Mark Carney will travel to the White House to meet with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, 6 May. This will be the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Carney came to office in March, and indeed since the victory for his centre-left Liberal party in the 28 April federal election. On 30 April, Trump said that the two had held a phone call, adding "I think we're going to have a great relationship...He called me up yesterday and said, 'Let's make a deal.'" He said the PM "couldn't have been nicer" and called him "a very nice gentleman".
- For Carney, getting off on the right foot with the US president will be key. The sour relationship between Trump and erstwhile PM Justin Trudeau was clear from the US' president's inauguration in Jan 2017, culminating in the taunts of 'Governor Trudeau' and calling for Canada to become a US state. While rhetoric on the latter has continued, it is less frequent than previously. As the BBC notes, Carney's position as a 'winner' could put him in good standing with Trump.
- With just over a month to go until the G7 summit takes place in Kananaskis, Alberta from 15-17 June, a few days before the 90-day pause on 'reciprocal' tariffs expires, significant focus will be on whether a deal can be reached or if the Canadian shift towards other markets and allied accelerates.
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CROSS ASSET: Risk-Positive Flow Accompanies News Of U.S. TikTok Deal
Equity index futures are off lows and bonds are off highs after the U.S. cash equity open, JPY FX weakness also seen alongside those moves.
- While there hasn’t been much of a headline trigger across the major newswires, a Fox reporter has noted that “there is a TikTok deal on the table to create a new company, US majority owned short video app venture. But there's also last minute and continued concern by equity players who are raising the issue of being indemnified in perpetuity over the liability provisions in the TikTok ban law (massive if the courts and or president says there's a violation).”
- This news is probably feeding into the risk-positive price action, although it may not be the only driver.
MNI: US FEB FACTORY ORDERS +0.6%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.4%
- MNI: US FEB FACTORY ORDERS +0.6%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.4%
- US FEB DURABLE ORDERS +1.0%
- US FEB NONDEFENSE CAP GOODS ORDERS EX AIRCRAFT -0.2%
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Tests Key Resistance
- RES 4: 112-23+ 1.618 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 3: 112-15 61.8% of the Sep 11 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear cycle (cont)
- RES 2: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 1: 112-02+ Intraday high
- PRICE: 111-27+ @ 14:46 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: 110-26+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-11/06 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 110-00 High Feb 7 and a key support
- SUP 4: 109-21+ Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
Treasury futures are holding on to their latest gains following the recovery from last week’s low of 110-06+ (Mar 27). The outlook remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at 112-01, the Mar 4 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open 112-13, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 110-26+, the 20-day EMA.
