US FINANCIALS: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: 3Q25 Results
(CM; Aa2/A+/AA-)
• Adj NI +4% Q/Q, PPPT +12% Y/Y, EPS beat.
• NII +15% Y/Y, NIM of1.94% continues to expand over LTM (1.84% 3Q24).
• Provisions of C$559MM down Q/Q, with YTD +12%, while PCL ratio of 0.33% up 4bps YTD. ACL ratio of 78 bps remains stable, up 1bp Q/Q. Cites mortgage delinquency uptick shouldn’t migrate to material loss, cites macro climate.
• Canadian Personal & Business Banking saw solid margin expansion.
• Commercial Banking & Wealth driven by growth in volumes, commissions, market appreciation.
• US Commercial Banking & Wealth saw solid deposit volumes, NIM expansion.
• Capital Markets continuing to benefit from higher activity levels.
• Adj ROE 14.2% rose Q/Q, Y/Y; beats est 13.3%.
• CET1 13.4% ~flat Q/Q, Y/Y, launches new stock repo of 2.2% of shares (est impact ~30bps).
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MNI: US BLS: JOLTS QUITS RATE 2.0% IN MAY; APR REVISED TO 2.0%
- MNI: US BLS: JOLTS QUITS RATE 2.0% IN MAY; APR REVISED TO 2.0%
MNI: US BLS: JOLTS OPENINGS 7.437M IN MAY; APR REVISED TO 7.712M
- MNI: US BLS: JOLTS OPENINGS 7.437M IN MAY; APR REVISED TO 7.712M
US DATA: Q2 Net Export Tracking Could Be Revised Higher Still [2/2]
- As for crude volume estimates, previously released export prices (0.5% M/M in June) suggest a weaker month for volumes considering values fell -0.6%.
- Nominal imports weakness looks volumes driven considering prices were near flat at 0.1% M/M after values fell -4.2% M/M.
- We won’t know official volumes data until next week’s final release, however.
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow will be updated later today for its final update ahead of Thursday’s advance Q2 release.
- It currently tracks real GDP growth at 2.4% annualized in Q2 after a string of downward revisions from readings firmly within the 3-4% range at the time of the last FOMC meeting in June. It follows -0.5% in Q1 and 2.4% in Q4, essentially implying no “catch-up” from the weak patch of Q1.
- Net exports are seen as a significant upside driver, adding 3.3pps to quarterly growth after a huge -4.6pps in Q1. We suspect this Q2 tracking could be revised higher after today’s June release but will wait and see.
- Today’s GDPNow update will also take into account of latest monthly inventory data. Changes in inventories have been another major source of uncertainty when it comes to GDP forecasting, currently seen by the Atlanta Fed as dragging -2.1pp from GDP growth in Q2 after adding 2.6pp in Q1.
