CANADA DATA: Canada's May Trade Balance -CAD5.9B Vs Apr Record -CAD7.6B

Core global FI markets trade away from session highs, several factors seemingly combine to “explain” the move.

• An uptick in crude oil, although the move is quite modest.
• The previously detailed BTP syndication, although this wasn’t a particular surprise, as some sell-side desks had flagged the potential for such issuance this week (MNI pencil in a EUR7-10bln transaction size for the new 5-year).
• Pricing of EUR IG bond issuance.
• We are on the lookout for any block flow.
• Tsy yields now flat to incrementally higher on the day, gilts continue to outperform.

This update includes additional sell-side views recieved over the last day.

The ECB’s June macroeconomic projections will be key in shaping the initial market reaction to Thursday’s policy statement. The statement will likely re-iterate the exceptionally uncertain outlook and the bank’s data-dependent stance, but a weak set of GDP/inflation projections could underscore the Governing Council’s dovish bias heading into H2. See below for a table of analyst expectations for the June projections.

• Real GDP: The main downward growth impact from US tariffs and associated uncertainty is expected in 2026, as the stronger-than-expected Q1 ’25 GDP print provides some offset this year. In 2027, some analysts pencil in upward revisions to account for higher EU/German fiscal spending.
  • RBC and Commerzbank look for a one-tenth downward revision in 2025 to 0.8%, while Natixis and Nomura see a two tenth upward revision to 1.1%.
  • The range of projections for 2026 is 0.9-1.2%.
  • In 2027, SEB and UBS expect a 1.5% projection on a larger fiscal impulse.
• Headline inflation:  The median analyst expects a two tenth downward revision in 2025 on weaker energy prices and a stronger EUR. The weaker growth expectations in 2026 also feed into lower headline inflation in that year.
  • Four analysts see a three tenth downward revision in 2025 to 2.0%, while Natixis only see a one tenth decline to 2.2%.
  • Several analysts see 2026 inflation revised two tenths lower to 1.7%. A reminder that the MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece noted that this projection is likely to be either 1.7% or 1.8%.
• Core inflation: The median analyst expects a one tenth downward revision in 2026 relative to March, a small upward revision in 2025 and no change in 2027.
  • The anticipated upward revision in 2025 is due to higher-than-expected spot core inflation pressures since March.
  • Goldman and UBS expect a 1.8% reading in 2026, but a good number of analysts also see a one tenth upward revision to 2.0%. Nomura see a 2.1% projection for 2026.
• A reminder that the ECB will also present a scenario analysis in the June projection round, but it is unclear whether this will feature an alternative set of GDP/inflation projections.
• Note: The June macroeconomic projections are compiled by Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, while March was compiled by ECB staff.

• MNI: US REDBOOK: MAY STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +4.9% WK ENDED MAY 31 V YR AGO WK