ENERGY: Canada Week: S&P Global Raises Oil Sands Outlook
Jun-27 11:11
- S&P Global upgrades outlook for oil sands production 5% to a record annual average 3.5 million bpd in 2025. Also forecasts 100K bpd production by 2030, 3% higher than previous outlook.
- British Columbia Premier David Eby was cool Wed when asked about potential for a new pipeline. "I won't speculate. There is no project, there is no proponent," he said, urging focus on CAD50B worth of shovel-ready projects.
- LNG Canada produced its first LNG for export from Kitimat, BC, with Petronas set to deliver first cargo to Japan's Toho Gas, Reuters reported.
- Canada’s economy insulated from oil price swings tied to Middle East conflict, RBC Economics said Tuesday. GDP and inflation impact expected to be modest as higher crude prices boost revenues for producers but are offset by increased energy costs for households and subdued investment. RBC also said the Bank of Canada is unlikely to react to oil volatility unless the conflict escalates significantly.
- United Steelworkers Union said Monday the government's new tariff-rate quota fails to block dumped steel from FTA countries like South Korea and Vietnam.
- Energy economist Heather Exner-Pirot warns Canada’s proposed emissions cap is “logistically unworkable, overly expensive, and likely to be challenged as unconstitutional." She estimates an effective carbon cost as high as CAD289K per ton when global emissions go up due to substitution effects, according to a report by Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
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BONDS: US and UK Roll pace (updated)
May-28 11:06
Roll pace Update, pretty much all done. All the Volume in US Treasuries is just spread related, and September is front Month.
- WNA: 86%%.
- USA: 87%.
- UXY: 81%.
- TYA: 82%.
- FVA: 82%.
- TUA: 81%.
- Gilt 95%.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Bunds Is Intact
May-28 11:04
- In the FI space, recent gains in Bund futures suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. This week’s climb reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.
EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
May-28 11:01
The EU has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Monday, June 2:
- Up to E2.5bln of the 2.625% Jul-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4D5QM6)
- Up to E2.0bln of the 2.75% Feb-33 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DW8)
- Up to E1.5bln of the 3.375% Nov-42 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DV0)
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