CANADA DATA: Canada Oct Trade Balance -CAD583M Vs Forecast -CAD900M

• Treasury futures dipped/rebound - still hold overnight range after ADP NER Pulse weekly employ +4,750
• Currently, TYH6 trades 112-09 (+1) vs. 112-05 low / 112-12.5 high.
• Curves flatter: 2s10s -.838 at 57.886, 5s30s -.764 at 104.619.
• Bbg US$ index near highs: BBDXY at 1214.31 +0.19.

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(MNI) London - Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump will deliver remarks on the economy from the Poconos in Pennsylvania at 18:10 ET 23:10 GMT.
• Comes as the latest opinion polling shows issues of 'affordability' and cost of living remain the major concerns for voters on both sides of the political divide.
• In a wide-ranging interview delivered to Politico, President Trump claimed that European leaders are "weak" and "don't know what to do", and that the lack of a presidential election in Ukraine means it is "not a democracy any more".
• Trump confirmed that Nvidia will be permitted to export its advanced H200 chips to China, which will have to pay a 25% surcharge. Marks a notable shift in US policy, which to date has been marked by restrictive measures towards allowing China access to high-tech semiconductors on national security grounds.
• The president announced a USD12bln financial relief package intended to assist farmers. Comes with less than a year until the midterm elections, where many rural-state Republicans face tough races amid a tough operating environment for farmers.
• House Rules Committee set to take up the National Defense Authorization Act, a ~USD900bln package that will fund the Pentagon for another 12 months.
• Poll of the Day: China's trade surplus continues to grow despite Trump's tariff efforts

The Euribor Mar ‘26/Dec ’26 spread (ERH6/Z6) trades back below 10.0 after trading at the highest level seen since early August (12.0).

• Yesterday’s move was triggered by the well-documented hawkish comments from executive Board member Schnabel, as she outlined her comfort with markets pricing the next ECB move as a hike.
• Natixis have recommended selling the spread as they expect “more balanced comments at the ECB press conference next week”. They target a move to 0.0, with a stop set at 15.0.