CANADA DATA: Canada June Payroll Employment -32.9K Led by Manufacturing

Aug-28 12:49
  • June payroll employment -0.2% MOM or -32.9K, according to StatsCan's secondary payrolls report out Thursday. That comes after +0.1% In May. 
  • Decline in June was seen in 10 out of 20 sectors led by manufacturing, retail, construction and healthcare. 
  • Report follows StatsCan's Labour Force Survey which showed employment -41K in July, which partly offset the +83K in June.
  • Average weekly earnings +3.7% YOY in June vs 3.3% in May. 
  • Some economists expect the central bank to hold its key interest rate steady at 2.75% at Sept. 17 rate decision as core inflation is still elevated. BOC remains cautious as tariffs may drive inflation higher but it says it could also cut if growth weakens. GDP quarterly report will be out Friday. 

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: US Tnotes look to test Friday's high

Jul-29 12:48
  • There's still way below average Volumes in Treasuries, but some pick up in sizes have gone through in the past 10 minutes or so with circa 35k in that period.
  • Friday's high in TYU5 is at 11.03, but seeing better around 111.05 initially.
  • In Yield terms, next support only comes at 4.30%, Today would equate to 111.16+.

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $2B NextEra Energy 2Y on Tap

Jul-29 12:47
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 07/29 $2B NextEra Energy 2Y +95a
  • 07/29 $Benchmark Sherwin Williams 3% +75a, 5Y +90a, 10Y +110a
  • $19.84B Priced Monday, largely tied to $12B Mexico 5Y issuance

US TSYS: Post-Advance Goods/ Wholesale Inventories React

Jul-29 12:36
  • Treasury futures holding near early session highs, little react to Advance Goods Trade Balance, import decline and less negative goods export. Wholesale inventories slightly higher than expected, retail inventories in-line.
  • Tsy Sep'25 10Y contract trades +7.5 at 111-00 vs. 111-00.5 high; initial technical resistance above at 111-14.5 (High Jul 22). Key support remains intact at 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. A move through this support would reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Curves flatter: 2s10s -0.168 at 47.617, 5s30s -1.984 at 96.721.
  • Cross asset: Bbg US$ index near recent high: BBDXY +3.65 at 1211.75; stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +13.5 at 6436.25); gold firmer +5.95 at 3320.56.