CANADA DATA: Canada Has 11th Consecutive Current Account Deficit

• Treasury futures gapped higher, extended top end of range after higher than expected March JOLTS quits rate (Jul'24 lvl), declining Confidence levels.
• Jun'25 10Y currently +5.5 at 112-02 vs. 112-06 high (10Y yld tapped 4.1736% low), through round number resistance, next level at 112-12 (61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg).
• Cross asset: BBG US$ index firmer off session low at 1221.79 (+1.97); stocks inexplicably bouncing: S&P eminis +13 at 5566.00.

• The 4.46% level in the 10yr Gilt is now tested as US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence come below consensus.
• While this Yield level is still holding, printed a 4.459% low, further push lower in Yield terms will have Investors staring at the 4.363% Yield, this was the April and 2025 low.
• Today, this would equate to 94.30.

• RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger     
• RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2       
• RES 2: 5619.66 50-day EMA and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 5578.75 High Apr 28                              
• PRICE: 5549.25 @ 14:52 BST Apr 29   
• SUP 1: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support                       
• SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 

The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5619.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish