EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Campari: 3Q Results

• +6,000 SFRX5 95.50/97.00 strangle w/ 95.75/96.87 strangle, 1.25 total for package

• The USD index has started the week on the back foot, consolidating a modest 0.25% move lower on the session amid US government shutdown concerns. Associated gains in G10 have been centred around the Japanese yen and notably, the Australian dollar ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision.
• With USDJPY moving average studies highlighting a dominant uptrend, today’s 0.6% pullback appears technically corrective. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance, while pivot support remains much further out at 145.49, Sep 17 low. Some market participants have sighted BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi’s comments as potentially assisting the yen bid on Monday.
• AUDUSD (+0.52%) edged back towards the 0.66 handle ahead of Tuesday’s central bank decision. With the RBA widely expected to be on hold in September, the focus will be on the tone of the statement and Governor Bullock’s press conference for guidance on the Board’s current thinking. Given the bullish underlying theme for AUDUSD, attention is on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.
• it’s worth noting that AUDJPY remains in a strong uptrend, with the 20-day EMA acting as very strong support in recent weeks. Additionally, an area between 97.25-45 continues to hold, while the uptrend from the April lows remains intact.
• GBPUSD’s move lower last week resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. Both 20- and 50-day EMAs also now intersect close to 1.3490, emphasising the short-term significance of this level.
• Ahead of the RBA, the BOJ summary of opinions and China PMIs are scheduled. German and French inflation releases are then due, before the US JOLTS jobs data.

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1754/1820 High Sep 25 / 23  
• PRICE: 1.1733 @ 15:56 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.1646 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at 1.1681. the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.