EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 175.05 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 174.95 @ 19:02 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 173.53/172.24 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.53, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Late Buying on Late SF Fed Daly Recalibration Comment
- Treasuries are still mostly weaker after the bell - but swinging off late lows following late comments on LinkedIn from SF Fed Daly, that tariff-tied inflation is likely a one-off, that inflation/labor market are in tension, and lastly that "it will soon be time to recalibrate policy"
- Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures currently trades -.5 at 112-18.5 vs. 112-20.5 morning high, initial technical resistance above at 112-28.5 (2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing).
- Curves mildly steeper: 2s10s +3.597 at 60.622, 5s30s +4.177 122.498.
- US$ remains stable near modest lows (BBDXY -.39 at 1200.81.)
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Final PMIs After Further Improvement In Flash
- The Eurozone final PMI surveys for August are due for manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday.
- The flash PMIs were surprisingly robust as the composite increased to 51.1 for another 0.2pt improvement, up from the 50.4 averaged in 1H25 and its highest since May 2024.
- Drivers were mixed however, with manufacturing leading the monthly improvement to 50.5 whilst services cooled to 50.7 as the two closed what has been sizeable divergence.
- This week's final readings should confirm that countries other than Germany and France have still been outperforming but by less than previous months.
- Since the flash PMI release, the European Commission's economic confidence index was softer than expected in August as it shifted back close to levels averaged in 1H25 and is comfortably below its long-term average.
JGB TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat
- RES 3: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 2: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- RES 1: 139.05 High Aug 4
- PRICE: 137.56 @ 19:59 BST Aug 29
- SUP 1: 137.22 - Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
A bear threat in JGBs futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. The first important resistance to watch remains 141.48, the May 2 high. Clearance of this level would be viewed as a bullish signal. Initial short-term resistance is 139.05, the Aug 4 high. A breach would be a positive development for bulls.
